Hyundai Tournament Of Champions 2015 – Daily Fantasy Golf – Player Picks Roundup

It’s a week and a half early but I’m just so excited for the new daily fantasy golf season and the Hyundai Tournament Of Champions 2015.

The field hasn’t been finalized and we expect as few as 30 players playing in this year’s edition, so that means, you’ll need something close to a perfect team to win this week.

Since there aren’t many golfers this week and I have some time on my hands, let’s discuss each golfer, not a at length, but just enough.

Kevin Streelman – He finished 3rd here last year in his first try. In that week, he finished 1st overall in putting. He’s been very hit or miss with the putter over the years. It seems he trades great years with average ones. However, he is an above average putter and that needs to be respected. If his value is right, he’s an interesting play.

Billy Horschel – He finished 6th here last year and I don’t see any reason why he can’t be a winner here. He’s an excellent putter and terrific iron player. With the wide and rolling fairways, he should have all the opportunity for throwing darts and dropping bombs. I’ll have him on my teams.

Geoff Ogilvy – He’s a 2 time winner of this event and has played well since July of 2014. He’s consistently one of the better putters on tour and should be taken seriously for this event. He may have a high price tag, in which case, I’d only sprinkle him on some tickets as there will be other value to be found. However, if for some reason he is not, he should find a place on your teams.

Jason Day – Rory Mcilroy is number 1 in the world, and in my opinion Jason Day is the number 2. He is a phenomenal putter and he’s in for a big year, barring injury. He’s my Master’s pick and my pick to win here. He’s on all my tickets.

Matt Kuchar – Over this course, he’s the most consistent golfer in this field. I expect him to be the second to third highest salary of the week. He’ll be on many of my tickets. Great putter.

Adam Scott- Very similar to Kuchar, and he’ll be number 1 or 2 in salary. Use him the same way you use Kuchar. Often.

Chris Kirk – He’s a tremendous putter and prognosticators have exulted him to a Ryder Cup mainstay for years to come, however, if he’s priced too high in this event, I may have to pass. It would be hard, but sometimes you must make tough decisions.

Justin Rose – Not sure if he’ll play, but I hope he does as he’s a definite pass for me. He’s all about top iron play, and on this course, I’d rather go with the percentages and take a putter. He’ll also be top 4 in salary and I’m not willing to pay that much for him. He had a really hot stretch but cooled off by the end of the year.

Angel Cabrera – I just don’t take him anymore unless he’s the cheapest guy in the field. It’s not worth the agony. Owning him is a sure fire way to become a manic depressive with all the highs and lows in every round.

Ryan Moore – Here’s a guy that’s all about the irons at this course. His putting rankings have always been in the bottom half of the field and he’s still managed a 10th and a 6th here. Unless he’s a discount, I probably won’t be paying for him this week.

Zach Johnson – Last years winner of this event and thus you’ll need to respect that. However, it was the 2nd year he actually putted well in his 7 trips here. The rest were pretty lack luster except for a 5th. Like Moore, unless he’s a discount, I probably won’t be paying for him this week.

Bubba Watson – This is a tough one. Thus is Bubba Watson. His putting statistics aren’t great, yet he’s won 2 Masters. His sweet spot is putting from 15-20 feet. However, for him this week, I think his iron play will matter more. He will be really long and have tons of short irons into greens. I’ll have him on some tickets, depending on his price.

Ben Crane – He’s mixed good results with poor ones over this course. I think he’ll be one of the cheaper players to take and based on his putting skills over the years, he’s definitely a guy to sprinkle on your tickets at a bargain price.

Patrick Reed – He finished mid pack last year and he’ll be a player that you never know what you’re going to get. I’ll probably have him around because he just goes for pins. He birdies and in daily fantasy, i’d rather have a guy who finished 16th and made 30 birdies than a guy who finished 6th and made 20.

JB Holmes – He’s not a good enough putter for me to take. He’s had a high finish here before when he was number 1 in greens in regulation. I’ll pass here.

Tim Clark – His strength is driving accuracy and that’s not a factor on this course, so i’ll be passing on him.

Scott Stallings – Poor track record here. Poor putter, not on my teams.

Hunter Mahan – He’s had 1 good outing and 2 poor ones over this course. His stats say he should excel over this course, however, he’s Hunter Mahan. I find him very untrustworthy for an expensive player. I never get it right when he plays well or plays poorly, so I’m not touching him at all.

John Senden – His one showing here was a 19th. He was a mainstay on my teams at the end of the year, but this is a new year. If he’s cheap, I’ll take him somewhere, if he’s on the expensive side, I won’t.

Sang Moon Bae – He finished 21st in his first outing here but he is a solid putter. His iron play isn’t high quality and that was his downfall here last year. I’m going to stay away.

Jimmy Walker – He finished 21st last year with good putting stats but lousy iron play. His GIR was abnormal here last year and if it gets on track, he’s right up at the top. I’m a big Jimmy Walker fan and I’m hoping to get a discount on him this week.

Charley Hoffman – Two starts and an average finish of 22nd place. His stats say he should play better over this course, so he’s all price dependent for me.

Russell Henley – Bad News: He finished 27th over this course last year. Good News: He didn’t putt well here last year and he’s one of the better putters on tour. Which means, he now knows what the greens are all about and can come back with experience. If he can be had for cheap, he’ll be on some of my rosters.

Camillo Villegas – In one word…… No.  I’ve just jinxed myself and he’ll win.

Steven Bowditch – He’ll be the cheapest player int he field possibly and he will not be on my team. He doesn’t putt well and his GIR is just as abysmal.

Matt Every – An intriguing player for the week. Over the past few years he’s ping ponged up and down in GIR stats and putting stats. He’s probably somewhere in the middle of all these stats, which means he’s above average in both. He will probably be a very affordable player to fill in for the low end and his poor driving distance and accuracy won’t matter much here. A nice longshot.

Chesson Hadley – Very inconsistent. I will not be touching him.

Brian Harman – I can’t find any knocks on him that will have me stay away. He’s above average in GIR and Putting, so he’s worth a pick at a good price.

Matt Jones – Not sure what to make of of Jones, so i’ll stay away. He’s just inconsistent from year to year in all stat categories that matter here.

Martin Kaymer – Probably not playing this week. I like him when he’s cheap, but not when he’s expensive. Odds are he’ll be expensive this week, if he plays, so I’ll stay away. If I do use him, it will be once.

Ben Martin – A real risk reward player that should find this course suits his game very well. He has a tremendous GIR and is terrific putter. Not terribly long or accurate, but as stated before, he’ll be able to get away with that here. If he’s cheap. he’s in play.

Hideki Matsuyama – I never take him on the right weeks and he always seems to screw me. I see him more as guy who excels on tougher courses. An excellent course manager. He’ll be higher priced this week and I’ll look elsewhere.

Rory Mcilroy – I’ve heard that he’s definitely not playing and I don’t think I need to say much about him. He can win anywhere.

Seung-Yul Noh – He’s only 23 and getting better. This past year he improved his GIR dramatically and won on tour, will this year be the year he fixes his putting? He’s all price dependent for me.

Kevin Stadler – Excellent tee to green player with a heinous putting stroke. If he has enough opportunities, he can drop them. What you’re taking here is his consistency. If his irons continue to be as good as they are, he’ll have an above average showing. with upside. Price dependent and health dependent. But probably worth a shot.

Robert Streb –  He’s coming in hot, if thats possible off a layoff. He’ll now become over priced in my opinion and I will stay away this time around, even though I like him.

Nick Taylor – A rookie winner already, but I’ll pass. The week he won lacked any of the big competition and then he went back to finishing in 56th place the next week. My pick for bottom 5.

Brendon Todd – Not a great long iron player but he’s good from mid range and in. He’s also a top putter. Tip Top! I really like him this week and he’s very consistent as well.  Will be on many of my teams. My sneaky play for the week. A real shot to win in my opinion.

 

 

 

Hyundai Tournament Of Champions 2015 – Daily Fantasy Golf Preview and Picks

The break has been too long. I love Thursdays more than anything in fantasy sports. Usually we get players on the course before I wake up, this week, we’ll get some late afternoon starts, but beggars can’t be choosers and we’ll take it. I love daily fantasy golf more than I love my children.

The Hyundai Tournament of Champions is played at the Plantation Course in Kapalua. It’s a Par 73, 7411 Yards with three Par 3’s, an extra Par 4, and four Par 5’s. It’s an Ocean Side course that’s carved out of a mountain, so wind will dictate length off the tee. If you’ve ever played an Ocean Course or Mountain Course, you know that some of the breaks on the greens don’t make sense to your eye, and having experience over the terrain is quite helpful. Another interesting thing about the course is that the ball runs on the fairways, so short hitters aren’t at a disadvantage because they’ll get a good roll. The fairways are quite wide, which usually provide with a higher than normal accuracy percentage off the tee, and an extremely high Greens In Regulation Average (Around 75-80 percent. That’s high!)  So really, more than most courses that the Tour plays on, this really comes down to being a putting contest.

Here’s a list of this years participants and their average finish. We’ll make notes on specific players, after this most amazing list.

Name

Events

Played

Top 10

Finishes

Avg

Finish

Kevin Streelman

1 1 3.0

Billy Horschel

1 1 6.0

Geoff Ogilvy

4 2 8.5

Jason Day

1 1 9.0

Matt Kuchar

5 4 9.8

Adam Scott

6 4 9.8

Chris Kirk

2 1 11.5

Justin Rose

1 0 12.0

Angel Cabrera

2 1 12.5

Ryan Moore

3 2 14.7

Zach Johnson

7 2 15.6

Bubba Watson

3 1 15.7

Ben Crane

4 2 16.0

Patrick Reed

1 0 16.0

J.B. Holmes

2 1 16.5

Tim Clark

1 0 17.0

Scott Stallings

2 0 17.5

Hunter Mahan

3 1 18.7

John Senden

1 0 19.0

Sang-Moon Bae

1 0 21.0

Jimmy Walker

1 0 21.0

Charley Hoffman

2 0 22.5

Russell Henley

1 0 27.0

Camilo Villegas

2 0 56.5

Steven Bowditch

First time in this event

Matt Every

First time in this event

Chesson Hadley

First time in this event

Brian Harman

First time in this event

Matt Jones

First time in this event

Martin Kaymer

First time in this event

Ben Martin

First time in this event

Hideki Matsuyama

First time in this event

Rory McIlroy

First time in this event

Seung-Yul Noh

First time in this event

Kevin Stadler

First time in this event

Robert Streb

First time in this event

Nick Taylor

First time in this event

Brendon Todd

First time in this event

 

Geoff Ogilvy – A 2 time winner of this event. The years he won, he finished 1st and 3rd in putting.

Matt Kuchar – The most consistent player history in this tournament.

Adam Scott – The second most consistent player history in this tournament.

Zach Johnson – Won this event last year and was ranked 2nd in putting. Spotty overall history.

It will be hard to determine who’s coming in hot as there’s been a break between the fall and this coming winter season. So FORM is not something we can count on this week.  However, lets mention one guy that can come in cold and play well.

Jason Day – He came back from his injury 2 weeks ago and played superbly at the Hero Classic. He was top 5 with a very strong finish. He’s so good that he can turn it on at any time. He’s played here once before and finished 9th. He’s right up there with Rory Mcilroy in our opinion. All he needs is health.

Now back to course history. If we look at the past winners since 1999, what you’ll notice most is that it’s dominated by good putters. Only players like Dustin Johnson, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh, whom were greens in regulations fiends, have won, but they are average putters at best. Geoff Ogilvy won twice and his putter is always ranked in the top 30. Stuart Appleby has won three times and he’ll sometimes crack the top 10 in putting statistics on tour. Daniel Chopra? The year he won, he was ranked 4th on tour for strokes gained putting. Jonathan Byrd? Top 60 putter the year he won. So we’re going to list below the players in the field that were top 60 putters on tour for 2014.

Matt Every

Brendon Todd

Jimmy Walker

Jon Senden

Matt Kuchar

Sang Moon Bae

Chris Kirk

Russell Henley

Jason Day

Ben Martin

Rory Mcilroy

Charley Hoffman

Patrick Reed

Billy Horschel

Adam Scott

Hunter Mahan

Sergio Garcia

I will also give honourable mention to Robert Streb, whom just finished outside the top 60 but has been on fire this fall.

Hope you enjoyed our first preview and primer for this upcoming fantasy golf season.

We’ll be back with more picks and articles on the first tournament of the year in the upcoming weeks. So come back and check for our updates.

 

 

Quest For $1000 – Day 55 – Daily Fantasy Football Picks – DraftKings Cash Game Tickets – UPDATE

Last night we got burned in the Orlando game and the high flying down the court was more like a half court offense. Basketball is getting the better of us lately, luckily, our favorite thing, daily fantasy football has arrived.

It’s quite an interesting week as we love so many quarterbacks and defenses. As always we will probably be changing things when we get more info on injuries etc.

So here we go for week 16 in the NFL. 10 x $1 50/50’s

UPDATE!

Pos Player FPPG  
QB Drew Brees 22.7 swap out
RB Tre Mason 11.8 swap out
RB Pierre Thomas 11.9 swap out
WR Donte Moncrief 6.8 swap out
WR Jordy Nelson 21.8 swap out
WR Roddy White P 15.6 swap out
TE Rob Gronkowski 18.6 swap out
FLEX Steve Smith Sr. 14.7 swap out
DST Seahawks 7.9 swap out

Matthew Stafford – He is in an optimal situation, indoors would be better, but the weather is going to be nice according to my sources. This defense is bad and the whole team is in disarray. My biggest fear is Jimmy Clausen, the backup on Chicago. I fear turnovers for touchdowns and Stafford won’t even have to throw the ball. The Qb I like that is cheaper is Joe Flacco. I think it’s a good spot against a bad pass D, but also, they have a bum QBing and I also fear the Defensive TD’s. If I were to spend higher, it would be on Tom Brady.

Fred Jackson – I’m still waiting to hear info on CJ Spiller involvement this week, but here’s an optimal game for Jackson to not just get catches but rushing yards. He’s a very high floor and this week I think he has a high ceiling against a terrible run defense in Oakland. Buffalo believes in themselves. They will play hard.

Tre Mason – I don’t understand why expert prognosticators don’t have Mason ranked way higher. This guy has faced tough run defenses all year. Arizona, Denver, San Fran, Seattle, Washington.  Alll ranked in the top 10 and some he’s played twice. Some he’s played well against, others not. When he’s played bad ones, he’s played well. He’s now the only guy in that backfield and he’s facing a GIANTS run defense that’s atrocious. This is optimal in every way and his price is dirt cheap. Also, it’s not like they throw the ball well.  As far as game flow, I think the St. Louis Defense will dictate everything. There will be turnovers created and great field position for Mason to do a lot of damage. He’s so cheap for a guy that will carry at least 20 times. If I lose on him, so be it. I made the right decision.

Calvin Johnson – I don’t normally play a receiver and a wideout but how can you not play Calvin versus the Bears. He destroyed them on Thanksgiving and the Bears have actually gotten worse. I wish his price was cheaper, but I I can’t have my cake and eat it too.

Harry Douglas – I’m going back to the well with this guy. His price has come up but if Jones doesn’t play again, he’s in another optimal situation against New Orleans indoors. This is a huge game and there’s no reason to expect a dud. This will be a shootout. If Jones plays, this pick will change.

Steve Smith Sr. – First, his price has come down to a mere 4100. So i think he’ll be able to reach his value. Second, I think Steve Smith Sr. is in for a big game. Before I get to the Houston pass defense. Lets discuss the Houston Offense. They have 3rd or 4th stringer starting, so they will be all over trying to run the ball. If I’m Baltimore, I don’t want Houston to be in the game from the get go. I would abandon the run and just pass into a way below average pass defense. Why let them hang around by making this a running game on both sides. They give up many big plays in the air and are average at sacking the QB. He may not get the targets of Torrey Smith, but he’ll get some deep shots on Sunday.

Rob Gronkowski – I wanted to take other players but I stuck with Gronk. He’s in a greta situation as always and he’ll get his catches, and yards with some upside.

Donte Moncrief – As of now it’s Moncrief, as It looks like TY Hilton might not be playing. If so, he’d be a starter and will get tons of targets. NO TY. NO BRAINER. But this could change and so would this pick.

RAVENS D – I wanted to take the Seahawks but I needed to save some money. This could be a field day against a 4th string QB. Shutout and everything else is on the table. Others to consider would be Detroit against Clausen.

QB Matthew Stafford 17.7 swap out
RB Fred Jackson 13.5 swap out
RB Tre Mason 11.8 swap out
WR Harry Douglas Q 11.0 swap out
WR Calvin Johnson Q 18.4 swap out
WR Steve Smith Sr. 14.7 swap out
TE Rob Gronkowski 18.6 swap out
FLEX Donte Moncrief 6.8 swap out
DST Ravens 9.5 swap out

Quest For $1000 – Day 54 – Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks – DraftKings Cash Game Tickets UPDATE!

Hi all! must be quick today as it’s wife appreciation night.

Last night we sucked. We still had a shot going into the last game remarkably but then Collison sucked and we lost all 3 tickets.

Tonight we try again, and we’ll be playing 6 x$1 50/50’s.

Here’s our lineup.

Lets go Meeks!

UPDATE!

Teletonic IN. Faried OUT!

Pos Player FPPG  
PG Dennis Schroder 17.4 swap out
SG James Harden 48.6 swap out
SF Tobias Harris 34.0 swap out
PF Dirk Nowitzki 31.7 swap out
C Al Horford 28.8 swap out
G Jodie Meeks 0.0 swap out
F Kenneth Faried Q 22.9 swap out
UTIL Victor Oladipo 27.7 swap out

 

Quest For $1000 – Day 53 – Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks – DraftKings Cash Game Tickets

We cleaned house in football on the weekend thanks to the trio of ODB, Jeremy Hill and Harry Douglas. We won all 10 of our tickets and that brings our quest total up to $60.60. We just sped through the 50 buck level, lets try and keep this going.

For our daily fantasy basketball picks tonight, we’re going to play 3 x $1 50/50’s and we feel good about everything so far. We expect there to be a lot of late changes, especially due to Dwayne Wade sistuation, so come back and check out updates.

Darren Collison – He’s coming off a bad game and should bounce back. Without Cousins still, he gets more opportunities to score. His value was very good for a consistent cash game player.

Bradley Beal – He is in a favorable matchup and his price isn’t high at all. He’s very consistent and we like that.

Williams – without Bosh and Mcroberts we think Williams benefits the most at his cheap price.

Dirk Nowitzki – Last time he played the Knicks, he lit them up. No reason to think he can’t do it again at a very reasonable price.

Marc Gasol – without Bogut playing, I couldn’t resist taking gasol in what might be more of an uptempo game.

Tim Hardaway Jr. – We neded another cheap guy and went with Hardaway. If Jr Smith doesn’t play, it’s all the better but he’s been getting minutes and minutes equal points.

Draymond Green – He’s also a good value and we couldn’t resist. He does more the score, so we like his ability for cash games.

Tyson Chandler – he won’t have 25 boards like he did last time against Knicks, but he will get the consistent rebounds we want. He’s a safe cash game play to us with upside of a repeat.

Pos Player FPPG  
PG Darren Collison 33.7 swap out
SG Bradley Beal 24.2 swap out
SF Shawne Williams 17.8 swap out
PF Dirk Nowitzki 31.7 swap out
C Marc Gasol 39.2 swap out
G Tim Hardaway Jr. 13.6 swap out
F Draymond Green 31.9 swap out
UTIL Tyson Chandler 31.3 swap out

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy 101

DAILY FANTASY GOLF STRATEGY – For many years, before my daily fantasy golf life, I would enter survivor/survival golf pools, and only for the major tournaments. For these pools, you’d pick any 4 or 5 golfers you wanted, no salary cap, and you needed all of them to make the cut to qualify. The funny thing about picking any golfer you wanted, it was still difficult to have all your golfers make the cut. On any given day, a player like Rickie Fowler (19 of 26 cuts) or Martin Kaymer (15 of 19 cuts), can have a bad round, or even just a bad hole on the first two days of a tournament and they’ll miss the cut. So let’s just state it right now, daily fantasy golf isn’t easy. You’re going to be wrong…… a lot.

When I first began playing daily fantasy golf, I hunted for strategy information around the internet but really couldn’t find anything that I didn’t already know, such as FORM, TYPE OF COURSE, and HORSES FOR COURSES. So there’s been much trial and error over the past year in attempts to figure out anything new, while still using the information of old. This means, looking deeper at the statistics we’ve already been using.

FORM

A golfer’s form may be the most important thing to keep an eye on. That’s not to say a golfer, while on a hot streak, can’t have a minor blip, or the opposite, a golfer who is stone cold, out of nowhere puts up a huge showing. These things happen, but if you’re playing the percentages, a player in good form is someone you should consider for your team, and a player in poor form is someone you should stay away from.

However, are these things always black and white? In my opinion, NO. There can be a debate on what is good form and what is bad form. I had many discussions last year on a specific golfer, that golfer being Stewart Cink. I was a fan and my counterpart was not. We had opposite views on his form. In my opinion, he had good form as he made 21 of 25 cuts. Whereas the counter argument made was that he had no top 10’s, so how can he have good form?

The answer, FORM is relative to your purpose, if that makes sense. Stewart Cink was always a bargain basement price, and to me, for his cost savings, and his ability to make cuts, his FORM, in my opinion, was terrific. All I wanted was for him to make a cut. His cut percentage was better than the above mentioned FOWLER and KAYMER. So FORM can be more than just very high finishes and hot streaks, when you’re looking for cheaper players, finding CUT MAKING form is also important to have success in daily fantasy golf.

THE MISSED CUT

When a player misses a cut, usually, the following week, many people will stay away from that golfer. We think his form is poor or is about to get poor, however, you need to read between the lines sometimes. Missed cuts happen for many reasons, and bad form is a big one, but sometimes, you see a golfer miss the cut with a blow up round or maybe just a poor round, but they follow it up or precede it with a solid round in the 60’s, like a nice 67. When you see something like this, open up his scorecard to see what may have gone wrong in that bad round. If all the stats look normal for that round, such as average putting, greens in regulation and driving accuracy, then it’s possible that whatever mistakes did happen, happened on the wrong holes, or were magnified by penalties. Sometimes an errant shot on one hole might not get penalized, but on another it can. If you can chalk up the bad round to bad luck, then you have an opportunity to select a golfer that doesn’t have poor form but has the perception of poor form. So don’t be afraid of missed cuts. Look deeper because it could be opportunity staring at you right in the face.

HORSES FOR COURSES

Some players just love certain courses, whether it be that their game suits a course perfectly, or if they live nearby and play the course more than others, it’s something that you always must pay attention to. But horses for courses shouldn’t just end there.

Sometimes, there are correlations between many different courses and you’ll see very similar leaderboards. Such as The Sony Open, RBC Heritage and OHL at Mayakoba. When this occurs, the advantage is finding a golfer in the field that has no track record at the course being played, but has great history at the others ones. This provides you with an edge on what will probably be a low owned player.

Besides looking for course correlations, some players like certain states, Florida Golf, Arizona Golf etc. Different states have different types of grass on the fairways, in the rough, and on the greens. Check to see where golfers do most of their top work and see if you can make correlations to better play in certain states and then take advantage of the situations.

A great resource to find Horses For Courses statistics is a paid site called GOLFSTATS and is well worth the money.

TYPE OF COURSE

We’ve talked about Horses For Courses and players with an affinity for specific states, but we also must look at the type of course. Is it short or long? Are the fairways tight? Are there many doglegs? Are the greens small or large? Are the greens undulating with big breaks? All of these become factors for player selection. This is where analyzing statistics becomes crucial. Every statistic that exists can be found on the PGATOUR.com website, but also, through GOLFSTATS, you can actually see where every player in the tournament ranked for distance, accuracy, greens in regulation and putting. From there, you’ll be able to see patterns of what specific categories were dominant amongst the leaders, and should garner your attention when selecting players for the week. An FYI, you always need to putt well.

GREENS IN REGULATION

A little break down when it comes to Greens In Regulation, as it’s one of those numbers that might not always be what it seems. It’s something that I learned from horse racing. The great Andy Beyer, creator of the beyer speed figure, also wrote about how a figure could be biased based on conditions. So we take the question he posed and relate it to golf. How did you achieve your greens in regulation percentage? A player like Bubba Watson has one of the best GIR’s around, but it’s actually deceiving. You see, Bubba hits the ball so long, that he has tons of short irons into the greens. Obviously, the closer you are to the green, the better your GIR will be. However, if Bubba is on a course that forces him to have shorter drives or longer irons into the greens, his GIR percentage and ranking will not be as stellar. On the flip side to the short iron strength of Bubba Watson, a player like Stewart Cink had a top 60 GIR in 2014, but was atrocious with his wedge game, but excelled in the mid to long iron GIR. Another interesting example is Henrik Stenson. He’s always near the top in world golf rankings, but his putting is nothing to write home about and his short irons are just average. So how can this be? The answer. Most of today’s courses are built long, putting a premium on extremely long second iron shots and no one in the world is better from 175 yards out than Henrik Stenson. For a short course you might have seen his high GIR and taken him, but that’s not his strength. You must go deeper into the statistics to see this.

So knowing the strengths and weakness’ for a players Greens In Regulation is a must when selecting them for a specific type of course because numbers aren’t always as they seem.

GOLF ODDS AND MiSPRICED PLAYERS

Every week, you should go to 3 different online sports books and check the golf odds on every player in the field. From there, you should create a list of the combined average odds and then try to find big anomalies between the odds and any player salary for daily fantasy golf. If you find a large discrepancy on a mid to top player, in our opinion, it’s best to take advantage. Is Vegas always right? No. For golf, most of the time they are very wrong, That’s why the odds are always so high for golf. But they are in the general ball park. Earlier this year, we found a discrepancy on Bill Haas. We didn’t need to even see the Vegas odds to know that someone didn’t do their job. You had one of the best cut makers with upside, ranked as the 60th best golfer when his world rank is around the 30 mark. Not all the top golfers were in the field, so he should have been ranked in the top 20, probably top 15. I took him on all tickets. I didn’t blink. When these things happen, you must act on them with conviction.

SCORING SYSTEM

Different sites have different scoring systems. Some reward players differently with bonuses for things like 3 birdies in a row or bogey free round. Some give more points for birdies than others etc. etc.

So when it comes to systems that are heavily in favour of birdies, it’s best to look for players that make them. You can go to the PGA TOUR website and find all the stats you need on average birdies per round. The first time I ever took Brooks Koepka, the US Open, I learned that even though he was driving me crazy with double and triple bogeys, he kept on getting birdies. His even par rounds were roller coaster rides that accumulated tons of points. Finding  players like him that birdie, even though they might not score well, can help you move up the standings.

TWITTER

Start following every golfers twitter account. Not every golfer is a dedicated tweeter, but sometimes they’ll pull out their phone and tell you how they’re feeling after a practice round. What you’re looking for is a golfer that tweets that the course is playing tough. You know right there, his practice round didn’t go very well, and maybe that’s a sign that he and the course will not agree with each other for the rest of the week.

Another reason to join Twitter is to get to know their personal lives. Off the course issues might effect their play or cause them to miss time, such as births, family emergencies and injuries.

ROSTER CONSTRUCTION

So now, through the above, you have a bunch of golfers that you like. Probably more than you know what to do with. In our opinion, you must take a stand and build a core. Sometimes the way you build this core can be different, depending on the situation.

EXAMPLES:

John Deere Classic

Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na have top notch records over the course. Besides Spieth, their isn’t other top competition. We find ways to have 3 of the 4 on all tickets, due to salary constraints, and then do our best to find the cheap players that will make the cut to fill in the other 3 spots. If we made 9 tickets, we’d go with 33% representation for each remaining player, unless there was a cheap player that really stood out to us. For this tournament, we knew that all the above players were not very long off the tee but very accurate in all other aspects of their games. So we looked for players like that to fill in those spots.

OHL at Mayakoba

Here was a course that had some player history. It was a short course that seemed to play to accurate players and even some long players. The hardest part of this week was spending tons of money on players that outside of this tournament were not very reliable to make the cut. So we went searching for the best deal on guys we thought would make the cut and had course history. We ended up on Jerry Kelly, whom had a perfect style for the course, and a favorite of ours, Daniel Summerhays. Summerhays was the hot pick from the year previous, but missed the cut. We thought his missed cut was not indicative of his play. Here we had, in our minds, 2 bargains. So we played these 2 guys as our core on every ticket. From there, we looked at horses for courses in all price ranges and mixed and matched. For this tournament we tiered players, using our top 3 plays, not including KELLY and SUMMERHAYS,  on 60% of our tickets. From there, we had 2 players left on every ticket to fill spots and we would use the remaining players we liked on 10-30% of tickets.

US OPEN

In an event like the U.S. Open, anything can happen. It’s very difficult golf. Usually in an event like this, we have a core of 6-8 players and we try to have max 50% exposure on any of them, so in all likelihood, 1 or possibly 2 won’t make the cut, we still have some tickets intact. After the core, we will then look for another to fill in the rest our spots with a max of 20%.  In an event like this, we hope the winner is in our core, this year it was Martin Kaymer. We had him on 40% of our tickets and our other core players all made the cut. This put our tickets in a great spot with many different options filling the last 2-3 spots for every ticket.

NON CUT TOURNAMENTS

For non cut tournaments, meaning, everyone makes the cut. You don’t have to worry about your players not being around for the weekend. So for these, you can make many more boom and bust tickets with no fear. So feel free to pick some bargain basement fliers. In fact, in these types of tournaments, there are usually small fields, and you need to differentiate yourself from other teams. So playing low end players is encouraged as they won’t hurt you as much if they don’t play well. Others players that you should play in non cut tournaments are birdie makers. Since they can’t miss the cut, they can still make birdies all weekend. Sometimes these types of players out point players who finish much higher in the standings due to site specific scoring systems.

These are just a few different roster construction strategies we’ve used and it’s really up to the week and the salary of players. However, you always must find a core to build around.

Before we end this section on Roster Construction, I think it’s best to discuss the ART OF THE FADE. This means, when constructing rosters, players you should stay away from. By late summer 2014, Rory Mcilroy was anointed to be Tiger Woods after winning 2 tournaments in a row. The problem with that, there was and only is one Tiger Woods. This is golf. It’s not tennis, where the top 5-6 players always end up in the semi finals. Now Back to Rory. By the end of the summer, his player salary had gone through the roof. He was priced to win. Rostering him, would severely hamper your ability to roster many other players you liked, and all of a sudden, you were forced to take players that had less of a chance to make the cut. If Rory didn’t win in these situations, he wasn’t worth the price. So keep in mind, when you’re looking for bargains, you should also look to see who is overpriced, and decide that they are not a good choice because it hampers your ability to create an optimal roster.

OTHER STRATEGIES

So besides our above strategies, based on what others have done, we’ll share a couple of strategies that we’ve never tried.

1) Using golf odds, constructing the best lineup you can, by using the the highest ranked golfers your money can buy in one lineup. We’ve read that one player has done such a thing and won.

2) Using the average fantasy points earned, by constructing a lineup using as many of the top point getters your money can buy in one lineup. This would be optimal point roster.

3) Like the 2 previous, you can do the same with the world golf rankings.

 

REMEMBER, you’re core players aren’t always going to play great. You need to have a short memory, take your lumps and move on. Daily Fantasy Golf

 

Quest For $1000 – Day 52 – Daily Fantasy Football Picks – DraftKings Cash Game Tickets – UPDATE 2!

I did a whole write up and it didn’t save. So for now, I’ll just post my current lineup and say that it will probably change. We found there to be lots of value this week, so we went with a balanced squad, all with upside potential.

We won both our daily basketball tickets the other night and our new quest total is at $52.60

This week we’re doing 10 x $1  50/50’s.

Also a note, we will not be doing basketball tonight as we won’t have the time needed before the game to concentrate on all the switches. If you do not have that time, we suggest not playing.

UPDATE 3!

Pos Player FPPG  
QB Mark Sanchez 18.4 swap out
RB Justin Forsett 17.7 swap out
RB Jeremy Hill 12.2 swap out
WR O. Beckham Jr. 21.5 swap out
WR Harry Douglas P 9.3 swap out
WR DeAndre Hopkins 16.9 swap out
TE Delanie Walker 12.3 swap out
FLEX Fred Jackson 13.6 swap out
DST Seahawks 7.8 swap out

 

Mark Sanchez- we moved him in when we paid more attention to the over under. it’s high! We just felt he was safer than Anderson with some upside. Dallas offence didn’t come to play last time, this time they should, and there should be more passing.

Harry Douglas – it looks more and more like no julio jones. they’ll need to plat catchup in this high over under so Douglas could get upwards of 10 targets.

Deandre Hopkins – We were on Evans and dead against Hopkins. What changed? it doesn’t look like andre johnson’s going to play. this should add 3-5 more targets hopkins way.

delanie walker – he had 10 targets last game and theres no reason to think he won’t get the same this week.

fred jackson – he has a high floor in a game where they should be playing from behind. it could also be windy, so short passes will rule. the packers d isn’t great either, especially running. 100 all purposes yards looks pretty good.

Pos Player FPPG  
QB Mark Sanchez 18.4 swap out
RB Justin Forsett 17.7 swap out
RB Jeremy Hill 12.2 swap out
WR O. Beckham Jr. 21.5 swap out
WR Harry Douglas P 9.3 swap out
WR DeAndre Hopkins 16.9 swap out
TE Delanie Walker 12.3 swap out
FLEX Fred Jackson 13.6 swap out
DST Ravens 8.5 swap out

UPDATE!

Derek Anderson – He’s the cheapest qb available and going up against a poor defense at home. He’s a serviceable backup on a team that still has a chance to make the playoffs. He performed well the first time he played them this year and his floor is high due to his low price.

Justin Forsett – Baltimore needs a win and to do so,they need to run the ball. This is a dream matchup against a poor Jaguars run D. I think he’s an elite runner at a discounted price.

Chris Johnson – We needed to save some money, so we took Johnson. He’s in a split time situation but we think he’s the more explosive of the 2 against a really bad run defense in Titanland. Here’s a game the Jets can win and they can do it by running. Both rib’s may be in for big days.

TY Hilton – He had a huge day the last time these 2 teams hooked up. Also, we think Andrew Luck will want to get back on the train and throw throw throw after last week. He’s not cheap but he’s also not as expensive of some other guys. We also thought about taking Jordy Nelson here, but opted for the player against the worse defense.

Mike Evans – Last week, the Carolina defense looked good and we have no idea where that came from because they’re not. They are middle of the road at best. We think Evans is at a nice discount to the big receivers this week with big upside potential. We thought about taking both Eagle receivers here as they are also dirt cheap but if you look at the last game against Dallas, they really ran ran ran.

Roddy White – Here’s some exposure to what should be a shoot out. Julio Jones is a game time decision and we actually hope he plays. Before the last two weeks, White had been getting a lot of attention, so we think that could swing back to White and we’d love the Julio Jones decoy. He could have a big day. We thought about Deandre Hopkins here, but like the Eagles, the last time Houston played the Colts, it was run run run, even when they were far behind.

Martellus Bennett – Without Marshall, he gets tons of targets.  It’s as simple as that. Many will be back on Jimmy Graham, but even before the last 2 games, we were noticing he was only getting garbage time catches. So we’re not to sure that a rebound is imminent. We also thought about Delanie Walker but we thought Bennett was more of a sure thing and with upside.

Jeremy Hill – He was really cheap and supposedly he’ll be used more than Bernard this week. Cleveland played well against the Colts last week because the Colts can’t run the ball well and that’s big weakness for the Browns. So here’s a team that can run and Hill will be a big benefactor. If the Bengals want pressure off Dalton, the balance must be there.

Baltimore D – They are playing Jacksonville at home. That’s all. Nothing more. Nothing less.

 

Pos Player FPPG  
QB Derek Anderson 6.8 swap out
RB Justin Forsett 17.7 swap out
RB Chris Johnson P 8.2 swap out
WR Mike Evans 18.3 swap out
WR T.Y. Hilton P 20.7 swap out
WR Roddy White P 15.3 swap out
TE M. Bennett 15.6 swap out
FLEX Jeremy Hill 12.2 swap out
DST Ravens 8.5 swap out

Quest For $1000 – Day 51 – Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks – DraftKings Cash Game Tickets

We apologize for our spotty updates lately, but we’ve had a perfect storm of events in the personal life. Wife in hospital and two relatives passing away. I’ll try not to be such an asshole today.

We won all three of our 50/50’s the other day, which brings us above the $50 mark for the first time to $51.00

Tonight we’re going to play 2 x $1 50/50’s on this very short slate

Irving IN – as Lebron OUt

Dellavedova IN

Ariza OUT

Beverly OUT

 

Pos Player FPPG  
PG R. Westbrook 42.8 swap out
SG Dion Waiters 16.7 swap out
SF Rudy Gay 38.2 swap out
PF Jason Thompson 16.6 swap out
C Reggie Evans 16.5 swap out
G Patrick Beverley 26.7 swap out
F Tristan Thompson 21.3 swap out
UTIL Trevor Ariza 29.3 swap out

Quest For $1000 – Day 50 – Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks – DraftKings Cash Game Tickets – Update!

Before we get to daily fantasy basketball, let us recap the zaniness of football and last nights basketball. We were well on our way to cashing all our football tickets last night until Lacy got hurt and Starks picked up the yards that should have been his, and we ended up cashing 6 of our 10 tickets. In hindsight, we should have never switched off Newton, as I Ioathe Kaepernick. We would have cake walked to victory. Then, last night in basketball, we were also on track to sweep all our tickets, but the last game ended up going to overtime and we cashed 2 of our 3 tickets.

This brings our total to $48.60, down .20 cents from our last update. Tonight we’re going to play another 3 x $1 50/50’s.

UPDATE

sorry for late update. life happened and wasn’t able to get to computer after making late change.

Pos Player FPTS  
PG Cory Joseph 0 swap out
SG Courtney Lee 9 lock
SF Rudy Gay 0 swap out
PF Ed Davis 0 swap out
C Chris Bosh 0 swap out
G Darren Collison 0 swap out
F Zach Randolph 4.5 lock
UTIL Markieff Morris 0 swap out

Joseph – He’s starting as Parker is hurt.

Wade – High paced game against a team that was in overtime, should take advantage.

Gay – No Cousins again means the offence come through him.

Davis -He’s now starting and his numbers should increase.

Hill – Up against a team with no Cousins, he should have an easy time on the boards.

Collison – Like Gay, without Cousins, he needs to take more offensive responsibility.

Randolph – The Mavericks D isn’t that impressive and plays up tempo basketball. He should be solid on the boards for a high ceiling tonight.

Vasquez – He’s cheap enough to pay off his salary as a starter. He’s getting 25 fantasy points a game with Derozan out.

Pos Player FPPG  
PG Cory Joseph 16.9 swap out
SG Dwyane Wade 36.9 swap out
SF Rudy Gay 38.2 swap out
PF Ed Davis 20.3 swap out
C Jordan Hill 29.9 swap out
G Darren Collison 33.3 swap out
F Zach Randolph 33.7 swap out
UTIL Greivis Vasquez 19.2 swap out

Quest For $1000 – Day 49 – Daily Fantasy Basketball

We must be quick today as I’m playing nurse to my family still.

Our Football is still up in the air going into tonight so we cross our fingers. Go Lacy!

In unrelated Quest news, we won the draftkings dfs 12k for golf over the weekend. Our first golf win after coming close on many occasions.

Sidenote: I cut the tips of three of my fingers and typing this really really hurts.

We are playing 3 x $1 50/50’s tonight.

Pos Player FPPG  
PG Kyle Lowry 40.5 swap out
SG Rodney Stuckey 21.1 swap out
SF Rudy Gay 37.8 swap out
PF Mirza Teletovic 21.7 swap out
C J.J. Hickson 20.5 swap out
G Darren Collison 33.6 swap out
F Wilson Chandler 27.0 swap out
UTIL Greivis Vasquez 18.9 swap out