Category Archives: Daily Fantasy Commentary

Congrats To Our FreeRoll Winner Docwan12!

Congrats To Our FreeRoll Winner Docwan12!

It was a crazy final 2 holes at the Phoenix Open and our loyal reader and newsletter follower docwan12 won our Freeroll on DraftKings and took home the top prize.

I myself also had a really good day, and was leading the DraftKings 75k with 2 holes left, before Martin Laird decided to choke on his own cock. I ended up in third and still took home a good chunk of change, but it could have been so much more.

If you are a newsletter member and you used our lineup this week for cash games, you would have made some money. It’s our second week of cash game lineups and we’re two for two. I just jinxed it! Damn me! The crazy part is, we still haven’t had a clean lineup with all players getting through, so we’re due for that, right? Fantasy gods, you’re listening, right?

Our deep sleeper picks were mixed. Cameron Tringale was god awful. Just horrible. On the other hand, our Johnny Vegas pick was half decent, especially for his price of $3900.

If you want to get our newsletter, go to our Freeroll page and sign up.

Have a most excellent day!

Gordmania

To Our Loyal Users, Love Best Daily

Hi Everyone! I just wanted to say HI! and that I appreciate everyone that comes to check this site out. What started as a Hobby, has quickly become more of that, and that’s all thanks to you. I may come off as an asshole or a crazy person on here sometimes and that’s the fun of this place.

As you may have noticed, I’ve thrown out all the other sports and I’m now fully concentrating on giving you the best daily fantasy and fantasy golf website out there. I don’t want to be like every other golf fantasy site, as to me, it’s boring. I want to make you laugh, I want you to hate me, I want to to shake your head in disgust and even confusion. Over the next month and a bit, I’ll be switching the site to a golf related name to reflect the change. I’ve bought a couple of names, but the leader is looking like thefantasygolf.com

I’m also thinking about tools to add for your use and was wondering if anyone here had anything they wanted that currently doesn’t exist.  I’ve been looking for a stats provider for in depth searching across many different variables but so far, i’ve hit a dead end on that, as the PGA does not let others use what I want. So I can build a very basic stats search, but I’m not sure that’s helpful. Do you guys want me to build a forum so you can talk to each other? Live broadcast of thoughts on players? Do you want me to build something like golfstats.com? So any thoughts are greatly appreciated in the comments section.

I’ve also applied for a PGA Media Pass, but I don’t think they’ll give me one. This means I’ll have to be creative and go Guerrilla Style. I will be getting my own pictures for copyright reasons as well as making you guys laugh by making ridiculously inappropriate memes that we can call our own. I’m also hoping to get interviews that are funny as well as informative by discussing the fantasy aspect of golf with the actual golfers we use every week.

That’s all I have to say for now and thanks for supporting me. It’s been really cool so far. Suggestions appreciated.

Best Daily

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy 101

DAILY FANTASY GOLF STRATEGY – For many years, before my daily fantasy golf life, I would enter survivor/survival golf pools, and only for the major tournaments. For these pools, you’d pick any 4 or 5 golfers you wanted, no salary cap, and you needed all of them to make the cut to qualify. The funny thing about picking any golfer you wanted, it was still difficult to have all your golfers make the cut. On any given day, a player like Rickie Fowler (19 of 26 cuts) or Martin Kaymer (15 of 19 cuts), can have a bad round, or even just a bad hole on the first two days of a tournament and they’ll miss the cut. So let’s just state it right now, daily fantasy golf isn’t easy. You’re going to be wrong…… a lot.

When I first began playing daily fantasy golf, I hunted for strategy information around the internet but really couldn’t find anything that I didn’t already know, such as FORM, TYPE OF COURSE, and HORSES FOR COURSES. So there’s been much trial and error over the past year in attempts to figure out anything new, while still using the information of old. This means, looking deeper at the statistics we’ve already been using.

FORM

A golfer’s form may be the most important thing to keep an eye on. That’s not to say a golfer, while on a hot streak, can’t have a minor blip, or the opposite, a golfer who is stone cold, out of nowhere puts up a huge showing. These things happen, but if you’re playing the percentages, a player in good form is someone you should consider for your team, and a player in poor form is someone you should stay away from.

However, are these things always black and white? In my opinion, NO. There can be a debate on what is good form and what is bad form. I had many discussions last year on a specific golfer, that golfer being Stewart Cink. I was a fan and my counterpart was not. We had opposite views on his form. In my opinion, he had good form as he made 21 of 25 cuts. Whereas the counter argument made was that he had no top 10’s, so how can he have good form?

The answer, FORM is relative to your purpose, if that makes sense. Stewart Cink was always a bargain basement price, and to me, for his cost savings, and his ability to make cuts, his FORM, in my opinion, was terrific. All I wanted was for him to make a cut. His cut percentage was better than the above mentioned FOWLER and KAYMER. So FORM can be more than just very high finishes and hot streaks, when you’re looking for cheaper players, finding CUT MAKING form is also important to have success in daily fantasy golf.

THE MISSED CUT

When a player misses a cut, usually, the following week, many people will stay away from that golfer. We think his form is poor or is about to get poor, however, you need to read between the lines sometimes. Missed cuts happen for many reasons, and bad form is a big one, but sometimes, you see a golfer miss the cut with a blow up round or maybe just a poor round, but they follow it up or precede it with a solid round in the 60’s, like a nice 67. When you see something like this, open up his scorecard to see what may have gone wrong in that bad round. If all the stats look normal for that round, such as average putting, greens in regulation and driving accuracy, then it’s possible that whatever mistakes did happen, happened on the wrong holes, or were magnified by penalties. Sometimes an errant shot on one hole might not get penalized, but on another it can. If you can chalk up the bad round to bad luck, then you have an opportunity to select a golfer that doesn’t have poor form but has the perception of poor form. So don’t be afraid of missed cuts. Look deeper because it could be opportunity staring at you right in the face.

HORSES FOR COURSES

Some players just love certain courses, whether it be that their game suits a course perfectly, or if they live nearby and play the course more than others, it’s something that you always must pay attention to. But horses for courses shouldn’t just end there.

Sometimes, there are correlations between many different courses and you’ll see very similar leaderboards. Such as The Sony Open, RBC Heritage and OHL at Mayakoba. When this occurs, the advantage is finding a golfer in the field that has no track record at the course being played, but has great history at the others ones. This provides you with an edge on what will probably be a low owned player.

Besides looking for course correlations, some players like certain states, Florida Golf, Arizona Golf etc. Different states have different types of grass on the fairways, in the rough, and on the greens. Check to see where golfers do most of their top work and see if you can make correlations to better play in certain states and then take advantage of the situations.

A great resource to find Horses For Courses statistics is a paid site called GOLFSTATS and is well worth the money.

TYPE OF COURSE

We’ve talked about Horses For Courses and players with an affinity for specific states, but we also must look at the type of course. Is it short or long? Are the fairways tight? Are there many doglegs? Are the greens small or large? Are the greens undulating with big breaks? All of these become factors for player selection. This is where analyzing statistics becomes crucial. Every statistic that exists can be found on the PGATOUR.com website, but also, through GOLFSTATS, you can actually see where every player in the tournament ranked for distance, accuracy, greens in regulation and putting. From there, you’ll be able to see patterns of what specific categories were dominant amongst the leaders, and should garner your attention when selecting players for the week. An FYI, you always need to putt well.

GREENS IN REGULATION

A little break down when it comes to Greens In Regulation, as it’s one of those numbers that might not always be what it seems. It’s something that I learned from horse racing. The great Andy Beyer, creator of the beyer speed figure, also wrote about how a figure could be biased based on conditions. So we take the question he posed and relate it to golf. How did you achieve your greens in regulation percentage? A player like Bubba Watson has one of the best GIR’s around, but it’s actually deceiving. You see, Bubba hits the ball so long, that he has tons of short irons into the greens. Obviously, the closer you are to the green, the better your GIR will be. However, if Bubba is on a course that forces him to have shorter drives or longer irons into the greens, his GIR percentage and ranking will not be as stellar. On the flip side to the short iron strength of Bubba Watson, a player like Stewart Cink had a top 60 GIR in 2014, but was atrocious with his wedge game, but excelled in the mid to long iron GIR. Another interesting example is Henrik Stenson. He’s always near the top in world golf rankings, but his putting is nothing to write home about and his short irons are just average. So how can this be? The answer. Most of today’s courses are built long, putting a premium on extremely long second iron shots and no one in the world is better from 175 yards out than Henrik Stenson. For a short course you might have seen his high GIR and taken him, but that’s not his strength. You must go deeper into the statistics to see this.

So knowing the strengths and weakness’ for a players Greens In Regulation is a must when selecting them for a specific type of course because numbers aren’t always as they seem.

GOLF ODDS AND MiSPRICED PLAYERS

Every week, you should go to 3 different online sports books and check the golf odds on every player in the field. From there, you should create a list of the combined average odds and then try to find big anomalies between the odds and any player salary for daily fantasy golf. If you find a large discrepancy on a mid to top player, in our opinion, it’s best to take advantage. Is Vegas always right? No. For golf, most of the time they are very wrong, That’s why the odds are always so high for golf. But they are in the general ball park. Earlier this year, we found a discrepancy on Bill Haas. We didn’t need to even see the Vegas odds to know that someone didn’t do their job. You had one of the best cut makers with upside, ranked as the 60th best golfer when his world rank is around the 30 mark. Not all the top golfers were in the field, so he should have been ranked in the top 20, probably top 15. I took him on all tickets. I didn’t blink. When these things happen, you must act on them with conviction.

SCORING SYSTEM

Different sites have different scoring systems. Some reward players differently with bonuses for things like 3 birdies in a row or bogey free round. Some give more points for birdies than others etc. etc.

So when it comes to systems that are heavily in favour of birdies, it’s best to look for players that make them. You can go to the PGA TOUR website and find all the stats you need on average birdies per round. The first time I ever took Brooks Koepka, the US Open, I learned that even though he was driving me crazy with double and triple bogeys, he kept on getting birdies. His even par rounds were roller coaster rides that accumulated tons of points. Finding  players like him that birdie, even though they might not score well, can help you move up the standings.

TWITTER

Start following every golfers twitter account. Not every golfer is a dedicated tweeter, but sometimes they’ll pull out their phone and tell you how they’re feeling after a practice round. What you’re looking for is a golfer that tweets that the course is playing tough. You know right there, his practice round didn’t go very well, and maybe that’s a sign that he and the course will not agree with each other for the rest of the week.

Another reason to join Twitter is to get to know their personal lives. Off the course issues might effect their play or cause them to miss time, such as births, family emergencies and injuries.

ROSTER CONSTRUCTION

So now, through the above, you have a bunch of golfers that you like. Probably more than you know what to do with. In our opinion, you must take a stand and build a core. Sometimes the way you build this core can be different, depending on the situation.

EXAMPLES:

John Deere Classic

Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na have top notch records over the course. Besides Spieth, their isn’t other top competition. We find ways to have 3 of the 4 on all tickets, due to salary constraints, and then do our best to find the cheap players that will make the cut to fill in the other 3 spots. If we made 9 tickets, we’d go with 33% representation for each remaining player, unless there was a cheap player that really stood out to us. For this tournament, we knew that all the above players were not very long off the tee but very accurate in all other aspects of their games. So we looked for players like that to fill in those spots.

OHL at Mayakoba

Here was a course that had some player history. It was a short course that seemed to play to accurate players and even some long players. The hardest part of this week was spending tons of money on players that outside of this tournament were not very reliable to make the cut. So we went searching for the best deal on guys we thought would make the cut and had course history. We ended up on Jerry Kelly, whom had a perfect style for the course, and a favorite of ours, Daniel Summerhays. Summerhays was the hot pick from the year previous, but missed the cut. We thought his missed cut was not indicative of his play. Here we had, in our minds, 2 bargains. So we played these 2 guys as our core on every ticket. From there, we looked at horses for courses in all price ranges and mixed and matched. For this tournament we tiered players, using our top 3 plays, not including KELLY and SUMMERHAYS,  on 60% of our tickets. From there, we had 2 players left on every ticket to fill spots and we would use the remaining players we liked on 10-30% of tickets.

US OPEN

In an event like the U.S. Open, anything can happen. It’s very difficult golf. Usually in an event like this, we have a core of 6-8 players and we try to have max 50% exposure on any of them, so in all likelihood, 1 or possibly 2 won’t make the cut, we still have some tickets intact. After the core, we will then look for another to fill in the rest our spots with a max of 20%.  In an event like this, we hope the winner is in our core, this year it was Martin Kaymer. We had him on 40% of our tickets and our other core players all made the cut. This put our tickets in a great spot with many different options filling the last 2-3 spots for every ticket.

NON CUT TOURNAMENTS

For non cut tournaments, meaning, everyone makes the cut. You don’t have to worry about your players not being around for the weekend. So for these, you can make many more boom and bust tickets with no fear. So feel free to pick some bargain basement fliers. In fact, in these types of tournaments, there are usually small fields, and you need to differentiate yourself from other teams. So playing low end players is encouraged as they won’t hurt you as much if they don’t play well. Others players that you should play in non cut tournaments are birdie makers. Since they can’t miss the cut, they can still make birdies all weekend. Sometimes these types of players out point players who finish much higher in the standings due to site specific scoring systems.

These are just a few different roster construction strategies we’ve used and it’s really up to the week and the salary of players. However, you always must find a core to build around.

Before we end this section on Roster Construction, I think it’s best to discuss the ART OF THE FADE. This means, when constructing rosters, players you should stay away from. By late summer 2014, Rory Mcilroy was anointed to be Tiger Woods after winning 2 tournaments in a row. The problem with that, there was and only is one Tiger Woods. This is golf. It’s not tennis, where the top 5-6 players always end up in the semi finals. Now Back to Rory. By the end of the summer, his player salary had gone through the roof. He was priced to win. Rostering him, would severely hamper your ability to roster many other players you liked, and all of a sudden, you were forced to take players that had less of a chance to make the cut. If Rory didn’t win in these situations, he wasn’t worth the price. So keep in mind, when you’re looking for bargains, you should also look to see who is overpriced, and decide that they are not a good choice because it hampers your ability to create an optimal roster.

OTHER STRATEGIES

So besides our above strategies, based on what others have done, we’ll share a couple of strategies that we’ve never tried.

1) Using golf odds, constructing the best lineup you can, by using the the highest ranked golfers your money can buy in one lineup. We’ve read that one player has done such a thing and won.

2) Using the average fantasy points earned, by constructing a lineup using as many of the top point getters your money can buy in one lineup. This would be optimal point roster.

3) Like the 2 previous, you can do the same with the world golf rankings.

 

REMEMBER, you’re core players aren’t always going to play great. You need to have a short memory, take your lumps and move on. Daily Fantasy Golf

 

The Daily Fantasy Life – Transparency

It’s now been 6 months since I dipped my feet back into the fantasy waters. It’s been a steep learning curve. I still don’t understand daily fantasy baseball, so if you ever see a post with my picks on baseball, run away as fast as you can. We’re big on daily fantasy golf picks though.

One of the reasons why I started this site was due to the lack of transparency from the experts and or the highly ranked players. I’m not a fan of advice without showing your hand. Yes, we get to see your roster after the fact, but at the same time, their influence sways many peoples picks and I think this is a conflict of interest, unless you show your tickets before games begin.

On the flip side, you have many daily fantasy sites that have prognosticators whom show you their played ticket, but at the same time, you have no confidence that they actually played it or have any money on the line at all. With nothing on the line, how are we to trust you? Do they even get nervous if their picks don’t do well?

I was out with The Shanooner on Sunday and we both discussed how nervous we get if our picks don’t do well. Our insides crawl as soon as game time begins. We feel our own internal pressure to do right by you, our loyal followers. We’re going to be wrong, a lot, but we hope to provide you with some insight and thoughts on our daily and weekly fantasy happenings.  We want to be the anti-big site. We know we will never be able to replace them, but we can offer you little things that others might not be following. Like how much I hate my wife and kids. Only myself and my therapist currently follow that one, now so do you. Welcome to the family. By the way, we love mail and love interaction, so please comment away, even if it’s to tell us that we suck.

I’ve totally gone mushy on what I was originally writing about. Hate my wife. Check! No, really, we just want to be the guys that play with you, not against you. We will always show you our hand and we’ll never deal from the bottom of the deck. Some nights we may not play, actually many nights we won’t play, because like you, we have lives, kinda. My wife dictates most of my life these days, so I’ll take that back. She has 2 lives, I have none.

These are our struggles. This is the life many of you lead. We’re all in this together.  I have no idea what happened to this post. I really didn’t intend for it to go this way, but between regular work and new daily fantasy golf salaries coming out, I got completely distracted and this whole thing went to shit.

To make a long story short, my wife is the devil reborn.

 

Top 6 Players That Will Never Make a Comeback On The PGA Tour 2014 -2015

Everyone loves a comeback but not everyone has the ability to do so. Here’s our Top 6 PGA TOUR Players that will NOT be making a PGA Tour comeback for the 2014 – 2015 season, as compiled by our trustworthy field reporter extra-ordinaire, Top Weekly.

Mike Weir
The courses get longer and he gets longer in the tooth. This one hurts as I am Canadian and Mike is a legend.
Aaron Baddeley 
I feel for him. Im afraid he has stopped believing in himself. I just can’t see a turnaround. To say his form is way off is too generous.
Stewart Cink
Zero top tens last year. He makes the cut, but that’s about it. A year older and an inability to get the putter going. He can’t string together low rounds. Not a good formula for trying to beat the best in the world.
Ian Poulter
No doubt this man can putt. That’s not the problem. The problem is everything else. His year was atrocious. one top ten. Barely any top 25’s. Usually Ryder Cup is his saving grace for this chest thumper, but he looked pedestrian at best. In his current form there will be no comeback. However, we love him and will be rooting for him.
Ricky Barnes
Comebacks are usually meant for guys that actually made it, but Barnes has always been this ball of potential. My brother and I have been waiting for ever….still waiting. Defintiley rooting for him but he’s up against it.
Lee Westwood
Two years ago he moved he and his family from Britain to Florida, with hopes to improve his chances in getting his coveted major championship. This decision was made when Lee was near the top of the golfing mountain. We thought it was awesome because he had hit rock bottom and on his own built himself back up. Now he wanted more. Turns out he got worse. He has clearly gained weight at the fancy palm beach steakhouses and his form is now light years from where it was two years ago. At his age, regaining the confidence and form is out of the question against a tour full of young talent.

If you like our picks, you should play them at DraftKings. Our preferred destination for Daily Fantasy Golf. Create a lineup NOW!

Top 6 Breakout Players – PGA Tour Fantasy Golf 2014 – 2015 Season Predictions & Picks

Top 6 Breakout Players – PGA Tour Fantasy Golf 2014 – 2015 Season Predictions & Picks

Brooks Koepka

He’s got his full status for the tour this year at the rip old age of 24. The only thing lacking in his game is accuracy off the tee. He finished 4th at the U.S. Open and 15th at the PGA Championship. He’s aggressive and might have those blow up holes but he has no fear to go low and take a tournament by the horns.

Jason Kokrak

He made 13 of 19 cuts last year, of those cuts made, 10 were top 25’s. He also missed 3 months of the season with a sports hernia. His only weakness is his accuracy off the tee and he’s hitting his prime age to start putting up wins on the PGA Tour. We’re big Kokrak fans.

Kevin Chappell

If Chappell advanced to East Lake this year, he would have been my sleeper pick for the TOUR Championship. He’s not the greatest putter but his driving and irons are impeccable. He’ll definitely be on my teams for long courses where accuracy is needed. If he makes the U.S. Open, he’ll be my dark horse.

Robert Streb

Streb was on many of my daily fantasy team down the stretch of the season due to his consistency. He made 17/21 cuts with 7 top 25’s. His only weakness is his driving accuracy but he’s still just 27 and can learn new tricks.

Morgan Hoffmann

Drive for show, putt for dough. Hoffman can flat out putt. His other statistical categories leave something to be desired, but his putting saves him. If he works on his iron play and becomes a more consistent striker of the ball this year, he’ll be dangerous. Finished off the year with an impressive FED Ex Cup run.

Ben Martin

If you were too look at his statistics, you’d probably call him a poor man’s Matt Kuchar. He’s got an all around game that could blossom into something special. For a guy with stats that good, his 13 of 26 cuts made is quite baffling. He takes it up a notch this year and finds the consistency needed to be a cut machine.

If you like our picks, create a daily fantasy sports lineups at DraftKings. Build your lineup NOW!

Top 10 PGA Tour Golf Rankings – PGA Tour 2014 – 2015

The PGA Golf season is upon us and we’re excited with the explosion of players playing their best golf at the end of last season. We’ve ranked the PGA Tour golfers based on whom we think will finish in the top 10 on the money list for the 2014 – 2015 season.

1 – Rory Mcilroy

It would be silly not to take Rory at number 1. He’ll have a better season this year than the last.

2- Rickie Fowler

He’s a new golfer. The crazy thing is, he didn’t even win last year and he still finished 8th on the money list. He’ll get 1, possibly 2 wins this season and earn his way up to number 2.

3 – Matt Kuchar

Kuchar doesn’t take many weeks off during the year. So by sheer volume, Kuchar will earn his way to the number 3 spot on the PGA Tour money list and in our rankings.

4 – Adam Scott

Is this too low for Adam Scott? He’s pretty darn good, even when he’s bad. He always ends up in the top 10 without his ‘A’ game. He easily makes it into the number 4 spot in our rankings.

5 – Jordan Spieth

It was quite the rookie season for Spieth and he didn’t even have a win. We say he gets a win this year and plays an above average amount of tourneys to earn his number 5 ranking.

6 – Jason Day

He’s arguably one of the best in the world. His injuries have slowed him down, but we think he’s passed them and he’ll win multiple times on Tour this year.

7 – Justin Rose

He’s playing very consistent golf, we’d have him higher but he plays too many Euro events, so we can’t fully endorse him for winning PGA cash.

8 – Jim Furyk

He did everything but win last year. It’s hard to keep up his level of play for so long at his age. We think he has a slight drop off as the time passes.

9 – Tiger Woods

Tiger will be back, maybe not on a full schedule, but he’ll do enough to make his way back into the top 10. He’s a competitor and it would be silly to write him off.

10 – Phil Mickelson

So many people are off the Phil bandwagon. Yes, he’s 44, but he’s still Phil Mickelson. He’s not going to fade away like he did last year. He has the drive to get back into the top 10, and like Woods, you should never count Phil out.

If you like our picks, create a daily fantasy sports lineups at DraftKings. Build your lineup NOW!

Daily Fantasy Football – How To Be The Warren Buffett Of Daily Fantasy Football

Warren Buffett is considered the world’s greatest value investor. He’s a contrarian. He loves things when you hate them and hates things when you love them. He believes in profiting from folly rather than investing in it. He doesn’t use an algorithm to make his investing decisions, like many of the hedge funds, he just uses his common sense. He’s old school. He’s a value investor and you should be too.

What is Value investing, you ask? According to Investopedia, Value Investing is the strategy of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic values. Value investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has undervalued. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond with the company’s long-term fundamentals. The result is an opportunity for value investors to profit by buying when the price is deflated. The big problem for value investing is estimating intrinsic value. Remember, there is no “correct” intrinsic value. Two investors can be given the exact same information and place a different value on a company. For this reason, another central concept to value investing is that of “margin of safety”. This just means that you buy at a big enough discount to allow some room for error in your estimation of value.

So how do you determine intrinsic value when it comes to daily fantasy football? First, lets look at the winning point total of DraftKings Sunday Million, 231.64 points. This point total equals 4.6328 points per $1000 dollars spent. The final cashing spot was in the 145-150 point range, but for our purposes We’ll say it was 150 and 3 points per $1000 spent. When it comes to 50/50’s over the last two weeks, the average final cashing position in the tournaments I’ve been in, has been 125 points, but lets bump it up to 130 to be safe. This equals 2.6 points per $1000 to cash in a 50/50 tournament.

Now that we’ve determined how many points per $1000 spent our team needs to cash, we then need to find players whom have deflated values due to a poor performance the previous week/weeks, players whose values don’t reflect their future opportunity, and star players whom are fairly priced but pay a dividend every quarter. And by quarter, I mean 4 of the 16 games for the year. The last one might have thrown you for a loop, so let’s examine this as this is where things can get tricky.

What does it mean to have a fairly priced star player that sometimes pays a dividend? I thought we were talking about value? I answer this with a quote from Warren Buffett himself. “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” In football, not all positions are made equal. There’s scarcity. Jimmy Graham is a TIER 1 tight end, he’s usually in a league of his own, unless Gronkowski is healthy and Julian Thomas is still catching ton’s of TD’s. But after these three, there’s a drop off. The same can be said about the Top 10 Wide Receivers as well. It’s all about opportunity. Once a RB gets his touches, which for the Top 20-25 is guaranteed, the ball then needs to be distributed amongst more than 1 wide receiver or tight end on a team. The Top 10 receivers in the league are pretty much guaranteed to get a healthy dose of targets or opportunities during a game, while fringe number 1 starters and number 2 wideouts will generally have 1/2 to 3/4 of the opportunity. Due to this factor, when it comes to receiving positions, there are huge drop offs. So in the law in value investing, it’s better to take the star player at a fair value, knowing that you’ll get a guaranteed output and look for your value in other places. If your $7500 dollar Star Receiver is consistently getting 20 points every week and the $6500 2nd Option Receiver is ranging between 6 and 30, Warren Buffett would always choose the consistency.

If you’re asking, why not take a star quarterback or star running back at a fairly valued price? The answer is, you can. There’s only 1 Peyton Manning and rostering him usually gives your team a great chance of cashing. Value investing isn’t saying not to. What value investing is saying is that every quarterback and almost all starting running backs have the same opportunities. A quarterback will throw 20-35 times per game and a starting running back will get 15-25 touches per game. There’s more guaranteed opportunity with these positions. With more opportunity comes a better chance of finding value. That may come in the form of good match-ups vs. bad defenses, or backups taking over starting roles. For years, it didn’t matter the name of the Denver Running back, it was plug and play into the scheme and off they went. It’s easier to find more guaranteed value at these positions because they are more opportunistic than the receiving position. These positions create their own destiny.

After you’ve gone through this process, you’ve probably created a roster that according to your intrinsic value estimation equals, at worst, the mid range amount of points needed to cash in a tournament and 50/50. I like to create intrinsic value estimates without touchdowns included, as touchdowns for the most part are not guaranteed. I aim for my team to hit the low end of the points needed to cash without touchdowns. Creating consistent teams like these, keeps you profitable and also gives you upside to hit a big score.

If Warren Buffett played Daily Fantasy Football, he might not be the winner of GPP’s on a consistent basis, but he would be a consistent winner and being a consistent winner has made him one of the richest people in the world. Value investing is the Warren Buffet way. If it’s good enough for him, it should be good enough for you too.

 

 

Daily Fantasy Commentary – Statistics. Fathers. Sons.

Today I woke up in my basement, curled up like a lazy cat to escape the humidity that was devouring the rest of my home. Well, that is a lie. I am a liar. I actually returned late from watching football, went straight to the basement and opened up my computer in privacy. I didn’t want my girlfriend to hear me come in and then listen to her complain that I love statistics more than her. I lie to her and tell her how ridiculous she’s being, but in fact, it’s so true.

I thought for a long time about my life and how i’ve gotten to where I am and where I might be going. It led me on a search to find the exact moment in life that I fell in love with statistics. Things like these usually stem from some childhood event and my story is no different. My story is about a boy whom wanted praise from his father. My father was a stockbroker and for the most part, had trouble talking about things other than the world of stocks, wine or some other thing that interests him. He wasn’t much of a guy that was interested in what you liked. So I took up the role as the pleaser. The guy whom was flexible. I became well versed in many different subjects just to have conversations with my dad. The first thing I did was learn about stocks.

I don’t remember the exact specific day, but it was sometime in May 1985. My dad was in bed, reading for work, when I walked in with the financial sections of the newspaper from the past 2 weeks. I plopped myself on his bright yellow bedspread and laid out my papers, which had the Coca-Cola symbol circled in each. His interest was piqued. I had my dad where I wanted him. I broke into the stock price and how it’s rising from the new coke debut from the month earlier. I showed him the prices, with an article that showed the share count and future earnings, and then explained my theory on how this was just the beginning. I said, there’s new coke, there’s old coke, they now have diet coke, and they’re debuting cherry coke as well as vanilla coke.  They’re going from 1 drink to 5, don’t you think they’re going to sell more cokes? ‘The stock seems cheap to me’, I said. It was a very crude assessment, but for a 6 year old, it was quite impressive. From that moment on, my dad always favoured me over my siblings. It’s something I still feel very guilty about.

That was my first introduction to statistics, even though not many statistics were involved. I was 7 and didn’t know much math. I did my best. What I enjoyed the most was analyzing and being right. The share price of Coke soared until the crash of 1987. In the meantime, I became a lover of baseball, as it was the one event my father would take my brother and I to, on a consistent basis. His office gave him tickets and my mother would drive us down to a deli near the stadium, where my dad would meet us. We had something new to talk about, baseball. I knew I needed to know as much as possible, so I became in love with baseball statistics.  I would play games like strat-o-matic with my brother and we would also record our own statistics when playing Nintendo against each other. Baseball statistics became like breathing. I could rattle off a players slash line like I was an encyclopedia. I liked knowing the answers for my dad when he brought up certain players. It kept the conversation flowing. For the most part, this was the extent of how I used my baseball knowledge, but on one magical day, my neighbour asked my brother and I to be in a baseball pool. I was 9 and little did he know, he was about to get destroyed. At first it was all about my dad, but now, it was about beating others and proving that I was smarter than you. My life’s path was set, even though I didn’t know it.

The following year, my dad was busy working many weekends on business trips, so a family friend came by and took my brother and I out for the day. Unfortunately, he took us to the horse track. We sat in the back barns with the stable hands and exercise riders and watched the races. It was a smokey room. Absolutely disgusting in every way, but I loved it. I was closer to the action than ever before. Our family friend laid down the daily racing form and showed us how to interpret the vast amount of information it possessed. It was a statistic lovers dream. The Jackson Pollock of Statistics in my opinion. A mish mash of all these things that didn’t make sense. I was given $10, looked over my form, picked my first horse and walked up to the ticket tote booth,. I pointed to our family friend and told the ticket guy, this bet’s for him, $10 on Steinlen to win. Unfortunately, Steinlen won. I was hooked. The good news at least was that I couldn’t go back to the track until I was 18. There are no winners at the track, besides the track, and Andy Beyer. You learn this the hard way, but it’s a lesson you must learn yourself. The funny thing about all this, my dad was mad at his friend for taking us there for a very long time, yet he calls me at Kentucky Derby time every year to ask my thoughts and I usually have many. Eventually our talks on horses led to an opportunity to purchase part of racehorse together and it gives us a common bond once again. We discuss it’s past performances and pour over his opponents in future races. I still feel like the little kid whom sat on his fathers bed to pitch him on buying coca cola stock.

So when my girlfriend says that I love statistics, or that I love fantasy or daily fantasy, or anything in that nature more than her, what she’s really saying is that I love my father more than her. Maybe I’m still trying to get his approval. Maybe it’s just the way I am, the person I’ve become. Old habits die hard, they say. I’ll tell you one thing, my father would be very happy to hear that I loved him so much. Maybe that’s all I ever really had to say. Maybe we are both afraid to say it out loud. Maybe. Fathers and Sons. Heaven help us.

*If you want to follow our horse. His name is Perfect Timber and he’ll be running at Woodbine on September 14th in the Gr. 1 Northern Dancer Stakes. We’ve been blessed.