PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open 2015 – DraftKings Strategy – Daily Fantasy Golf
It’s strategy time! This is where the men and the boys are separated. You can pick whomever or like whomever, but if you don’t have proper combinations of players, you can kiss your chances goodbye.
So before we get into strategy, let me copy and paste previous post information so you know the rhyme or reason to why certain players were picked.
COPY AND PASTE BEGIN
The Waste Management Phoenix Open may be the most exciting final 4 holes in golf. There are 2 eagle opportunities with the Par 5,15th and the short par 4, 17th. Throw in the raucous crowd at the par 3, 16th, and you have a recipe for noise and mayhem coming down the stretch at the TPC Scottsdale.
The course is a Par 71, measuring 7216 yards, with 79 sand bunkers which are strategically placed around the greens and on the fairways. There are also 6 holes which feature water, including 3 of the last 4 holes.
Scoring is generally low, so players can be aggressive on this course, however they have to pick their moments as several holes can jump up and bite you hard. Looking at the past 10 winners they have averaged -18, so expect the same this year unless the weather is out of the ordinary.
In 2014, Kevin Stadler and Graham DeLaet finished 1-2, both players are horrible putters. When you go down the past leaderboards and take a look at the top 60-70 putters on tour from 2014, you’ll only see something just larger than a handful of them on both lists. However, if you look at the top 60-70 GIR players on Tour, you’ll see Stadler, Delaet Watson, Howell, Moore, Steele, Hoffman, Haas, Stanley, Mahan, Dufner and many more.
So unlike most tournaments, putting doesn’t matter as much here. Some years, of course hot putters bring home the championship, but here, in many cases, the top is riddled with players who were just average putters for the week.
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This explains why being a precise iron player and a long hitter is beneficial at the Phoenix Open. If you can dominate the Par 5’s and the short par 4 all week, that’s half your score, and that gives you a chance for a win.
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It’s now out of the way. The roadblock has been cleared, let us get to it, shall we?
We like a whole slew of guys in the 6000 and 7000 buck range this week. A few guys on the top also catch our fancy. We like 4-5 guys in the 8000 and 9000 range too. And we like 1 dirt cheap guy as a flier. So let us begin. We are playing against Tiger and Phil. Too much risk for the price. We are also playing against Brendan Steele, because we think he’ll have high ownership. We also are playing against Scott Piercy, who might have high ownership as well. We know Fowler is Fowler, but he doesn’t have a great track record here, so we stayed away. We have no idea how good Justin Thomas is, but we’ll let others pay for him.
Bubba Watson – He’s the most expensive guy on this list and usually I don’t make those recommendations but this week I am. He’s played well here before with 3 top 10’s in 8 tries and he’s just playing so well right now. He’s long off the tee and accurate with his irons. He should dominate the Par 5’s and the short Par 4 this week. The crowd loves him. We will have him on 30-40% of our tickets.
Jordan Spieth – He was super hot before his little layoff and we like him here too. He’s 32nd in Par 5 scoring and can putt. He’s never played here, so it makes us a little nervous, spending this much money, but he’s a phenom. He’ll be on 20-30% of our tickets.
Matt Kuchar – He’s been here 3 times with one top 10. His last two weeks of golf have been a 3rd and 2nd. He’s long off the tee and top 60 in GIR. He must be considered for your teams and will make some of mine. He’s hot right now. He’ll be on 10% of my tickets.
Hideki Matsuyama – He wasn’t on my tiered picks, but I will add him after I finish writing this. He was 4th here last year and is top 5 in par 5 scoring. and interesting play and will be on 10-30% of my tickets.
Ryan Palmer – He’s been playing the best golf of his career in the past half year and he’s had two top 5 finishes on this course in 8 tries. He hits the ball 300 yards, is top 50 in GIR, and he can putt with the best of them. Definitely a guy to consider for your teams. He’ll be on 20-30% of my tickets.
Gary Woodland – He has two top 5’s in his last 3 starts. He wallops the ball, is top 50 in GIR and has finished as high as 5th here before. He’s 70th par 5 scoring. On 20-30% of my tickets.
Harris English – He seems to have his game back after a bit of slide late last year. He murders the ball off the tee and his GIR is impeccable. He was top 10 here last year and there is no reason to believe he can’t be again. He’s pretty close to average price on DraftKings and he’s a nice cut maker with solid upside. I’ve started to love him. His par 5 performance is top notch. He’s on at least 40% of my tickets.
Brooks Koepka– I have no idea if he will be on any of my teams yet. But I do know that he launches golf balls into orbit, he has an average GIR and he makes birdies. This guy has no fear. He may take some big scores. But if he makes the cut, make no mistake, he could shoot even par with 9 birds and 9 bogeys. He’s that kind of guy and that’s good for the DraftKings scoring system. Amazing Par 5 performances. He’s on 50% of my tickets, minimum.
Zach Johnson – His form isn’t good and he doesn’t have a track record to write home about. That track record is not exactly recent though. It’s his price that’s enticing. When is Zach Johnson this cheap when it’s not a major tournament? Is this a suckers bet? His par 5 scoring is amazing. He’ll make 10-20% of my teams.
Francesco Molinari – He’s been on these lists twice already this year and he’s been 37th and 10th. One of the best ball strikers in the world. His GIR is up there with the best. He’s not overly long off the tee, but when he needs to, he gets it just over 290, but he’s usually 285. It’s a slight disadvantage, but he’s a cut maker to me. He’s a safer play that has upside potential if he’s really dialed in. In his short stint on Tour, He’s 17th on Par 5 scoring and on 30-40% of my teams.
Kevin Na – Yes! I have a Kevin Na man crush. In his 9 whacks around this fine course, he has four top 5 finishes. That’s pretty impressive. He’s an anomaly as he’s very short off the tee. He has precision long irons that help him on the par 5’s. At $7100, that’s good deal. 7th last year in Par 5 scoring. He’s on 20-30% of my teams.
Martin Laird – Laird is playing well. He’s had 2 top 20’s in his last 4 trip here, including a third. He hits it nearly 300 yards and is his Par 5 scoring is top notch. I have a good feeling about him and he’ll make my tickets. He’ll be on 20-40% of my tickets.
Jason Kokrak – He’s one of my favourite players to have a big breakout season. He finished 15th here last year and he also had two missed cuts the previous years. Last year, his season was quietly solid and he’s been getting better. Up until last week, he had three top 20’s in a row, only to be derailed by a very poor final round last at the Humana to end his streak. He’s super long off the tee and was 74th in GIR last year. He has top 10 potential in this tournament at sub 7000.Solid Par 5 scoring. He’s on 50% of my tickets.
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Charles Howell 3 – He’s cheap and for the most part reliable. His record is solid with an odd top 10 finish. Two in thirteen attempts to be exact. Top 7 in Par 5 scoring last year. He’s on 30-50% of my tickets.
JB Holmes – He hits the ball further than anyone and he’s won here twice. He must be a consideration for your team at $6600. He’s not consistent, but you know he can win here. He’s a flier and will be on 10-20% of my tickets
Seung Yul Noh – His big weakness is his putter and he could overcome that this week. He’s long with a high GIR. Three years ago, he finished 33rd in his debut here. He’s above average in Par 5 scoring and he should be able to take advantage this week and earn his 6000 buck salary. He’ll be on 30-40% of tickets
Cameron Tringale – He played well last week and seems to play well on courses where Par 5 scoring matters. He not overly long off the tee, but he has precision long irons and hits greens. He gives himself those eagle and birdie chances on the Par 5’s. He makes all his money in non majors and is a good bet to make the cut at 6000. Similar player to the Zach Johnson’s and Kevin Na’s of the golf world. He’ll be on 30% of tickets.
Jhonnatan Vegas – Speaking of bad putters. Say hello to Johnny Vegas. If Kyle Stanley could win here, so could Johnny Vegas. He hits it 300 plus yards and was ranked in the top 10 for GIR in 2014. He never has form so it doesn’t really matter. Some weeks he just pops and has a good tournament. At 3900, I’d say he’s worth a shot somewhere. 10th in Par 5 scoring. To afford multiple big boys in spots, I’ll need Vegas. He’s on 30% of my teams.