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PGA Farmers Insurance Open 2015 – DraftKings Tiered Picks – Daily Fantasy Golf

PGA Farmers Insurance Open 2015 – DraftKings Tiered Picks – Daily Fantasy Golf

Did everyone win money last week? I’m currently bathing in some $100 bills at the moment. Our picks last week were pretty spot on. Yes, I’m tooting my own horn. Why? Because I’m an asshole. I was on my way to winning the 75k at Draftkings until Martin Laird, whom was brilliant all week, decided to three putt and then shank one into the water on his last two holes. I ended up finishing in third. How did this happen? It’s because I got cocky. I declared victory and then the gods of fantasy threw a lighting bolt down from space and put me in my rightful place. I could blame Martin Laird, but I really have no one to blame but myself. Lesson learned…… for the 500th time. Maybe this time I’ll listen. Maybe it will be this week, but probably not.

Do you know what also might happen this week, but probably not? Tiger Woods making the cut. We are in Tigers House, at Torrey Pines, and I still don’t think he has a shot in hell. His swing is fucked and it’s getting into his head. He’s second guessing himself and it’s something he’s never had to deal with before. This is Torrey Pines and it isn’t easy. At least the South course isn’t. As always, I’m going to copy and paste some information from previous posts in here to save me some time, so if you’ve already read and are mad that I’m doing it, well, too fucking bad.

COPY AND PASTE BEGIN

This tournament is played over 2 courses, Torrey Pines North and Torrey Pines South.

  • Torrey Pines (South) is a 7,698 par-72 layout featuring four par 5s and four par 3s.
  • Torrey Pines (North) is a 7,052 par-72 layout featuring four par 5s and four par 3s.

Of these two courses, Torrey Pines South is the only course played on Saturday and Sunday. As you can see above, it’s the much longer of the two courses, so it is a must that a player take advantage on the short North course. The statistic that matters most is GIR and proximity to hole. These courses have poa annua greens and get bumpier throughout the day. This means, no putt is safe, no matter how far you are away from the hole.  It’s not known if you can be a bad putter and still play well here, but in theory, even the best putters will be missing some short ones, so it’s possible that could be an advantage for those that are flat stick challenged.

Another stat that should be looked at is Par 5 scoring, which means, length is needed. Some of the big hitters that have done well here in the past have all taken advantage of the par 5’s. It’s not a necessity, but it does help. This brings us to the next stat, all around ranking. This is a cumulative of all parts of your game. Based on players that continuously play well at Torrey Pines, their all around ranking is Top 60 or better.

So for the purposes of this picks preview for the Farmers Insurance Open 2015, we are going to look for players that fit into the TOP 60 in all of these categories: AAR, GIR, Proximity To Hole, Par 5 Scoring, and Driving Distance. However, it is a must that they be in the top 60 for All Around Ranking.

COPY AND PASTE OVER

Man, all that copying and pasting made me really tired. Can someone bring me over some cobbler and ice cream? We can be best friends. It’s a great trade. Seriously, it is.

Now back to golf and Torrey Pines and The PGA Farmers Insurance Open 2015 (SEO). I think, and yes, this is my opinion, that there will be tons of cut carnage this week. Why? When looking at past history, there’s just not a ton of names that have been consistent, and the ones that have been, might not be trustworthy at the moment. Do you trust Nick Watney? He’s missed 3 of his last 4 cuts. Do you trust Phil Mickelson? Not so much. Luke Donald? He’s a shadow of his former self.

Usually my lists are long, but this week, it’s going to be much shorter. I’m going to have many top salary golfers on here, but I may not be able to roster them because I’m not so sure about any of the guys in the sub 6000 range. I’m leaning to be conservative this week. I will have some cheap guys but I may not take them come ticket time. But I’ll put them down here anyway. I got all serious there. I need to meditate now.

TIER 1

Jordan Spieth – He wasn’t in contention last week, but then pulled an Adam Scott Top 10 finish by sneaking up on the last day. He doesn’t fit the criteria for what I’m looking for, but he has intangibles that very few have. He’s one of the better putters around, has shot making ability, a scrambler extraordinaire and it seems like he never strings 2 bad rounds in a row. If you pay of him here, then he must finish in the top 3 spots to pay off, in my opinion. But who am i? Answer. I’m from Toronto and I’m an introvert who likes movies. Just like you.

Jason Day – He’s one of the best in the world, but doesn’t fit all of our criteria. He’s just outside on proximity to hole, ranked 62nd and he’s nowhere close on GIR. So when he sticks it close here, he makes them as he’s one of the better putters on tour. That’s why his last 2 trips were a 2nd and 9th.

Jimmy Walker – He’s as hot as anyone right now and can win any week. He fits into all 5 of our critteria categories and he’s a top putter on top of that. In his last 4 years here, he missed the cut, finished 4th, 8th, and 29th. Decisions Decisions!

TIER 2

Justin Rose – He fits all 5 criteria categories like Walker, but hasn’t had the same type of history.No top 10’s in 5 tries but he hasn’t been here in 3 years. However, he’s a much different golfer now. Do I have the balls to play against him?

Hideki Matsuyama – Could have easily won last week, but didn’t get the rolls at the end. He’s becoming more consistent and that’s encouraging. He fits 4 of the 5 criteria and was 16th in his first try here, which is also a bonus. You can’t go wrong with him, or at least, if he sucked, I could handle the pain.

Rickie Fowler – If he played well last week, would he be 15,000 bucks? Are we getting him at a discount here? He missed the cut last year, but he’s also been 6th, 13th, 20th and 5th. Last week was his first tournament back from a break, I think I’m going all in on this discounted star. I think I just convinced myself.

TIER 3

Brandt Snedeker– Next to Tiger Woods, he has the best record on this golf course. The question is, has he found the consistent form that made him one of the better players in the world, or are you taking a giant risk by paying up for his record. He putts the shit out of these greens. I will take a sliver on him.

Graham Delaet – He fits all 5 of my criteria and in his last 2 years, he’s been 2nd and 9th. He played well last week which is encouraging but injuries on course always scare me with him. I’ll have him, but just in case, only a little because i’ll throw the tv out the window if he withdraws in round 1 after 4 holes with a back injury, or neck, or whatever is the injury of the day.

Brooks Koepka – Yes he is good. Yes he can win back to back. He fits the criteria of a guy that can win here and he gets birdies, which is always fun. Even though he can win here, the one thing that scares me is the let down week. It was his first win and there will be more and he knows it, so will he be rejoicing his week and forget to practice as much? I’m throwing that out there. It happens sometimes.

TIER 4

Bill Haas – He made the cut last week then stunk like a pile of poo. He has a consistent history here and he’s a guy that should be able to bounce back, unless something was wrong. I’ll look into him more and update. I doubt many will be on him this week, which is a bonus if you take him.

Gary Woodland – After the missed cut, everyone might be off the Woodland train. So this is where you can take advantage. Playing in the afternoon on Friday last week was a clusterfuck and I think you can throw out his score. He has the game to play well at Torrey Pines and finished 10th here last year. He’s also made all 5 of his cuts here. Not too many in the field can say that. Love them, when others hate them – Warren Buffet. He said something like that.

Justin Thomas – He’s just so hot right now. I’ve stayed away from him and now I’m saying take him? My brother thinks he’s this years Spieth. I’m beginning to believe. He finished 10th here last year and there’s no reason to believe that he can’t win this one. Are we buying high?

Marc Leishman – He fits 4 of my 5 criteria and has an excellent track record here. He’s been 2nd, cut, 52nd, 9th, 2nd, 26th. So why am i hesitating? Since mid August of 2014 until now, nothing about his form excites me. I won’t knock you for taking him, but this may be a guy to play against because I think he’ll be very highly owned.

TIER 5

Billy Horschel – I made a wager on one of the many betting sites at long odds that Billy Horschel would win the US Open this year. I think he’s that type of player. Hits it pretty long, solid greens in regulation kinda guy. He hits 4 of my 5 criteria and in his last 2 trips here, he’s been 23rd and 39th.  His missed cuts were from his first 2 seasons, so i’m tossing them. He hasn’t been lights out lately, but i like his consistency and his price has come back to earth.

Keegan Bradley – He has 3 top 25’s in 4 tries over this course. He’s a Ryder Cup player sitting right at the average price. He finished 17th last week but was never really involved after day 1. He rarely misses cuts that aren’t the Majors or the TPC, so I think you must consider him a little bit of a deal, with upside.

TIER 6

Brendan Steele – Last weeks darling pick that was 30% owned everywhere. I stayed away. I was indifferent to his 26th. However, I’m sure many were disappointed. Here’s a guy that hits three of my 5 criteria but is just on the outskirts of the other 2, plus he has 3 top 28’s in 4 tries here. He has pretty good form, cut making form and he’s below the average price. He has upside.

Paul Casey – Of all the guys on my criteria list that really just missed all 5 of my criteria, Paul Casey was the most interesting. He only hit 3 but was so close to all 5. 65th’s in GIR and distance. He played here a long time ago and was 22nd. He also made the cut at the US Open at Torrey Pines. He missed the cut at the Humana by a stroke but before that he was playing some decent golf. A consideration.

Pat Perez – He’s been making cuts and that’s why you would take him here. He has a long history here, with mixed results, but many of his missed cuts were earlier in his career. I might sprinkle him.

TIER 7

Charles Howell 3 – His shitty last day cost me the 75k at Draftkings, yet i’m still putting him on this list. I hold no grudges. He makes cuts and he does the same thing here. He has 5 top 10’s here and has never missed the cut. It’s his recent form that’s scary. He’s trending the wrong way and when he has made the cut, he’s been mediocre at best, and mostly awful after that. But at 6900, it’s tough to resist.

Seung Yul Noh – I took him last week and he made the cut, but didn’t do much else. He hit 3 of my 5 criteria and was just on the outside of the other 2. He’s made the cut 3 out of 3 times here, with a 10th and two 27th’s. His 2nd round at the Phoenix was in the afternoon and he shot a 75, but still made the cut. He took a triple bogey on a hole then bounced back. If he played the morning, he might have shot a 70. I’m hypothesizing now, and if he did, he would have finished around 15th spot. So if you look at his last 3 tournaments, one being a missed cut, the other being an 11th, he might not be in bad form. It might be half decent.

Aaron Baddeley – I can’t believe he made this list. He’s had a decent history at Torrey Pines because he can just flat out putt on these greens.  It’s the other part of his game that scare me. He showed up and played well last week, does that mean he can do it two weeks in a row? I’m struggling to find cheap players. He must be considered.  Since the fall season, his form has probably been his best in a very long long time.

Eric Compton – He’s made 2 of 3 cuts here with a 15th and 19th. It’s his putter that helps him here, however, his other categories scare me. But his history, in small sample, says if his other parts don’t suck the big one, he can play well here.

TIER 8

Ryo Ishikawa – 7th, missed cut and 13th. Now, do you trust him? He’s missed his first 2 cuts of the year. But again, it’s hard to find cheap guys this week, in my opinion. Do you trust him? He’s a snappy dresser.

TIER 9

Jhonny Vegas – Yes, I always have Johnny Vegas on my lists. He’s dirt cheap. And if I want an expensive guy, I’ll have to take a flier on a really cheap guy. Why Jhonny again? He hits it long, he scores on par 5’s and is fairly accurate off the tee for a guy his length. His proximity to the hole is terrible but tee to green, he’s pretty good. Yes, the greens are smaller here, so his GIR might not be so great, but he’s made 3 of 4 cuts here and finished 3rd once. I just want him to make the cut. That’s all I ask.

That took forever. It’s late and I  must go to bed. i’ll end this tomorrow with some deep thought that will just annoy you.

I forgot to post after I fell asleep. Geez!

I’ll be back to make updates on this post as I always change my mind

Good Luck All!

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