PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open 2015 – Tiered Picks DraftKings – Daily Fantasy Golf
* UPDATES WILL BE MARKED UPDATE.! MAKE SENSE?
RECAP: What a crazy finish it was at last week’s Humana Challenge 2015. It could have gone 16-20 different ways. Everyone was making birdies, Including some of my guys. Charley Hoffman and Webb Simpson finished strong for me and propelled me to win all of my 50/50 tickets. A team with two guys that missed the cut. I didn’t think it was possible but there was a tremendous amount of cut carnage and any team that was able to have all 6 players intact probably did pretty decently as long as they had couple of guys near the top. Our Tournament tickets didn’t fair so well as we were mid range almost everywhere, with tickets that were at least missing 1 guy. If you’re a newsletter follower, you would have received my winning 50/50 team as well as my 2 deep sleepers. Only 1 of the two performed well, that being Matt Jones, and he was average at best.
Now before we continue with golf, lets have a non-golf but golf related interlude, shall we?
REAL CONVERSATION WITH MY DAD TODAY
DAD: What’s doing?
ME: I’m updating my fantasy golf website.
DAD: I didn’t know you had a website.
ME: I’ve been talking non stop about it for the past 6 months, Dad. Do you seriously not remember?
DAD: Oh yeah, that’s right. How’s that going?
ME: I hate you and your stupid fucking face. It’s all Lies! Lies!
END OF REAL CONVERSATION WITH MY DAD AND POSSIBLY OUR RELATIONSHIP AS A WHOLE
And we are back, thanks dad, for everything. Especially for getting me interested in golf in the first place. Especially Arizona golf. This weeks tournament is the Waste Management Phoenix Open and like every week, I like copying and pasting everything from my previews into these Pick Posts and this week is no different.
COPY AND PASTE BEGIN
The Waste Management Phoenix Open may be the most exciting final 4 holes in golf. There are 2 eagle opportunities with the Par 5,15th and the short par 4, 17th. Throw in the raucous crowd at the par 3, 16th, and you have a recipe for noise and mayhem coming down the stretch at the TPC Scottsdale.
The course is a Par 71, measuring 7216 yards, with 79 sand bunkers which are strategically placed around the greens and on the fairways. There are also 6 holes which feature water, including 3 of the last 4 holes.
Scoring is generally low, so players can be aggressive on this course, however they have to pick their moments as several holes can jump up and bite you hard. Looking at the past 10 winners they have averaged -18, so expect the same this year unless the weather is out of the ordinary.
In 2014, Kevin Stadler and Graham DeLaet finished 1-2, both players are horrible putters. When you go down the past leaderboards and take a look at the top 60-70 putters on tour from 2014, you’ll only see something just larger than a handful of them on both lists. However, if you look at the top 60-70 GIR players on Tour, you’ll see Stadler, Delaet Watson, Howell, Moore, Steele, Hoffman, Haas, Stanley, Mahan, Dufner and many more.
So unlike most tournaments, putting doesn’t matter as much here. Some years, of course hot putters bring home the championship, but here, in many cases, the top is riddled with players who were just average putters for the week.
This explains why being a precise iron player and a long hitter is beneficial at the Phoenix Open. If you can dominate the Par 5’s and the short par 4 all week, that’s half your score, and that gives you a chance for a win.
COPY AND PAST OVER
So lets not waste anymore of your precious time and get into this weeks Tiered Picks For DraftKings.
Bubba Watson – He’s the most expensive guy on this list and usually I don’t make those recommendations but this week I am. He’s played well here before with 3 top 10’s in 8 tries and he’s just playing so well right now. He’s long off the tee and accurate with his irons. He should dominate the Par 5’s and the short Par 4 this week. The crowd loves him.
Jordan Spieth – His stats say this shouldn’t be the course for him but he’s Jordan Spieth. We will find out soon.
Matt Kuchar – He’s been here 3 times with one top 10. His last two weeks of golf have been a 3rd and 2nd. He’s long off the tee and top 60 in GIR. He must be considered for your teams and will make some of mine. He’s hot right now.
Rickie Fowler – This one is a toughie. His record here is mixed with a 2nd but also two missed cuts in his last two. However, he’s not the same golfer as he was at this time last year. His GIR rank is 100 plus and that might be enough to scare me away. Playing here is all about opportunities. I may take one shot on him.
Phil Mickelson – He played pretty well last week in his first tournament from the layoff. Now we are at one of his beloved homes. He’s royalty here and he is by far Arizona’s favourite son. He’s won here multiple times and has ten top 10’s in 25 appearances. He’s Phil Mickelson and don’t you forget it.
Bill Haas – He won the Humana Challenge so we know his form is quite good. He hasn’t missed a cut since September, 2013. He has two top 10’s in 8 attempts here, so he must be on your mind, as he is mine, when it comes down to choosing him as a top guy on your tickets. He’s one of the better GIR players on Tour and if there is any knock against him, it’s that he’s not overly long, only hitting it 287 yards per drive.
Patrick Reed – I’m not going to talk about Reed that much. He obviously has game and is in solid form. He finished 19th in his first try here last year. Some betting sites have him as their 5th choice but most have him ranked where he is on DraftKings. I wouldn’t knock anyone for taking him.
Ryan Palmer – He’s been playing the best golf of his career in the past half year and he’s had two top 5 finishes on this course in 8 tries. He hits the ball 300 yards, is top 50 in GIR, and he can putt with the best of them. Definitely a guy to consider for your teams. He’ll make at least one of mine.
Gary Woodland – I will not bad mouth anyone that takes Woodland this week. He has two top 5’s in his last 3 starts. He wallops the ball, is top 50 in GIR and has finished as high as 5th here before. However, for a few extra bucks, you can have 1 of the above 2 guys. I might use him to cover my ass and spread risk.
Hunter Mahan – He’s a former winner here with three top 10’s in 8 tries and 1 missed cut, many, many years ago. He hits it close to 300 yards off the tee, top 50 in GIR, and top 60 in putting. Last year was an off year for him and it was still a great year. I feel he’s not getting any respect and he’s a discount because of it. He’ll be on some of my tickets and I’m not a big Hunter Mahan guy.
Justin Thomas – He’s just so hot right now and he must be looked at in every which way. However, I’m not sure about him this week. His GIR is not very good and he’s just been driving the ball long and putting well. I think this is more of a course for precision irons and I may not take him. If so, I hope everyone else does and he misses the cut. See Jordan Spieth. His stats are similar.
Brendan Steele – Here is the #1 horse for the course this week. He’s had 4 top 6th place finishes over this track. That’s pretty impressive, and thus, why he is $8800. He played well last week at the Humana and had a chance to win down the stretch but came up short. So we know he’s in good form. Is this the classic, everyone jumps on board and he misses the cut out of nowhere week from him? He did miss 30 percent of his cuts last year. Price is the biggest sticking point for me here. But I probably will have him on 1 team. However, I will still probably cheer against him if his ownership % is through the roof.
Harris English – He seems to have his game back after a bit of slide late last year. He murders the ball off the tee and his GIR is impeccable. He was top 10 here last year and there is no reason to believe he can’t be again. He’s pretty close to average price on DraftKings and he’s a nice cut maker with solid upside.
Scott Piercy – Here’s the 2nd horse for the course, Scott Piercy. He has 3 top 8’s in 6 attempts, and five top 15’s. In his last 12 rounds, only 2 have been in the 70’s. However, can you fully trust him to make the cut based on his whole career?
Keegan Bradley – He missed the cut here last year and his previous efforts before that were a 24th and 15th. However, his price dropped $3000 this week and he’s right at the average salary. He hits it 300 plus, was 46th in GIR last year, hits it fairly straight for his length, was 47th in putting last year and was ranked 29th tee to green. He should be able to excel here. Last year, he was 66-80 and missed the cut. The 80 included a triple bogey on the easy par 5 third. Virtually losing 4 strokes to the field. He may have mentally lost it there as he knew his chances of winning took a huge beating as he bogeyed 8 more on the way in. Do you think we should just toss that round as an anomaly?
Brooks Koepka– I have no idea if he will be on any of my teams yet. But I do know that he launches golf balls into orbit, he has an average GIR and he makes birdies. This guy has no fear. He may take some big scores. But if he makes the cut, make no mistake, he could shoot even par with 9 birds and 9 bogeys. He’s that kind of guy and that’s good for the DraftKings scoring system.
Charley Hoffman – Besides his 2nd place finish here, he’s been horrible. However, he’s in good form. His stats say he should play well on this course. A possible contrarian play.
Zach Johnson – His form isn’t good and he doesn’t have a track record to write home about. That track record is not exactly recent though. It’s his price that’s enticing. When is Zach Johnson this cheap when it’s not a major tournament? Is this a suckers bet?
Francesco Molinari – He’s been on these lists twice already this year and he’s been 37th and 10th. One of the best ball strikers in the world. His GIR is up there with the best. He’s not overly long off the tee, but when he needs to, he gets it just over 290, but he’s usually 285. It’s a slight disadvantage, but he’s a cut maker to me. He’s a safer play that has upside potential if he’s really dialed in.
Kevin Na – Yes! I have a Kevin Na man crush. In his 9 whacks around this fine course, he has four top 5 finishes. That’s pretty impressive. He’s an anomaly as he’s very short off the tee. He has precision long irons that help him on the par 5’s. At $7100, that’s good deal.
Robert Streb – He’s been one of the hotter golfers on tour since the fall season began and into the winter. His long drives and fairly accurate irons say that he should at least conquer the par 5’s, which gives him a great shot at making the cut in his debut.
Shawn Stefani – He finished off last year playing really well and he’s almost hotter than Hansel right now. This is the best stretch so far in his professional career. His long drives and accurate irons are a recipe for success in Phoenix. Staying with a hot hand here might pay off. I’ll have him somewhere.
UPDATE – Martin Laird – ADDED – Laird is playing well. He’s had 2 top 20’s in his last 4 trip here, including a third. He hits it nearly 300 yards and is his Par 5 scoring is top notch. I have a good feeling about him and he’ll make my tickets.
Jason Kokrak – He’s one of my favourite players to have a big breakout season. He finished 15th here last year and he also had two missed cuts the previous years. Last year, his season was quietly solid and he’s been getting better. Up until last week, he had three top 20’s in a row, only to be derailed by a very poor final round last at the Humana to end his streak. He’s super long off the tee and was 74th in GIR last year. He has top 10 potential in this tournament at sub 7000.
Charles Howell 3 – He’s cheap and for the most part reliable. His record is solid with an odd top 10 finish. Two in thirteen attempts to be exact.
Russell Knox – He missed the cut last week and that’s not encouraging, however, he doesn’t miss that many cuts. He’s not long off the tee but he’s deadly accurate with his irons. This is his first try here and I say he doesn’t miss 2 cuts in a row. He’s cheap and with upside possibility.
Pat Perez – I’m a Pat Perez guy. He makes cuts. He’s never had a top 10 finish in Phoenix but he plays pretty well. He’s started off the year with 2 top 30’s and he’s an easy guy to cheer for.
JB Holmes – He hits the ball further than anyone and he’s won here twice. He must be a consideration for your team at $6600. He’s not consistent, but you know he can win here.
UPDATE – Seung Yul Noh – ADDED – His big weakness is his putter and he could overcome that this week. He’s long with a high GIR. Three years ago, he finished 33rd in his debut here. He’s above average in Par 5 scoring and he should be able to take advantage this week and earn his 6000 buck salary.
UPDATE – Cameron Tringale – ADDED – He played well last week and seems to play well on courses where Par 5 scoring matters. He not overly long off the tee, but he has precision long irons and hits greens. He gives himself those eagle and birdie chances on the Par 5’s. He makes all his money in non majors and is a good bet to make the cut at 6000. Similar player to the Zach Johnson’s and Kevin Na’s of the golf world.
Matt Every – He’s burned me EVERY time I take him. How was that lame joke? He has 2 top 10’s in 3 tries at the very low price of 5400.
Kyle Stanley – An inconsistent former winner of this event who is priced under 5000. He hits it nearly 300 yards with a top 45 GIR. A flier if you’re in need of a cheap guy.
Jhonnatan Vegas – Speaking of bad putters. Say hello to Johnny Vegas. If Kyle Stanley could win here, so could Johnny Vegas. He hits it 300 plus yards and was ranked in the top 10 for GIR in 2014. He never has form so it doesn’t really matter. Some weeks he just pops and has a good tournament. At 3900, I’d say he’s worth a shot somewhere.
My tiered lists seem to be getting longer. I’m so tired but it was worth it. This is what I do for you guys. I’m amazing.
I’ll be adding more info and always check back because I make updates to this post as I change my mind on things sometimes. All the time. Constantly.
Good Luck All!